Dan Bongino is warning conservatives not to put too much faith in current political polling, arguing that past elections during the Donald Trump era show Republicans have repeatedly outperformed survey expectations when voters actually show up.

Bongino said the only number that ultimately matters is turnout, not what polling models suggest in the final weeks of an election.

"Folks, there's even more evidence that you should take a lot of this polling, and you should just throw it right in the garbage and incinerate it. If you show up on election day and the numbers we know the MAGA movement can do it, you will win. If you don't, we will lose. That's it. There's no cheat sheet to this game. There's none," Bongino said.

He urged Trump supporters to treat the election as an all-hands effort and bring additional voters with them.

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"Show up and please, in the name of all that's holy out there, or we will lose our country to a bunch of secular commie lunatics. Please bring 10 people with you. Please, I'm begging you to bring 10 people with you. I'm not too proud to tell you that we will lose our country," Bongino said.

Bongino pointed to CNN’s Harry Enten as evidence that polling misses in previous elections could dramatically change the current political picture if similar patterns happen again.

"Here's CNN again, Harry End. CNN. I certainly don't have any pro-Trump agenda. Saying, "Hey, man, the polling in the past-we have evidence the polling in the past in the Donald Trump era has been wrong over and over. So I don't understand why anyone trusts the polling now," Bongino said.

He said Enten’s analysis demonstrates how even a modest Republican overperformance could flip several states that currently appear unfavorable in polling.

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Enten illustrated what that scenario could look like.

"If we in fact do have these same exact overperformances from Republicans, this 5347, what does that turn into? It turns into, boom, 51.49 Republicans because Michigan, that would go from blue to red. How about Texas? That would go from blue to red. Iowa, the same. Ohio, the same," Enten said.

He added that Texas could be a major indicator of what is happening across the country.

"So what happens in Texas could very well tell us what is going on nationwide. Because if Texas turns blue, it means that all of this red right here, maybe the polls would actually indicate that they would turn blue," Enten said.

Bongino argued that the broader lesson is that polling has repeatedly failed to fully capture Republican support during the Trump era.

"Folks, I hate stupid cliches, but sometimes they're helpful because everybody understands them. That's why they're cliches. Sometimes the past is prolog. The polling is missed in the Trump era many times," Bongino said.

He acknowledged that there are several theories for why Republicans may be underrepresented in polling samples.

"There are a number of theories behind it. Republicans don't like to talk to pollsters, Republicans. The home phones aren't around anymore. It's harder to track people down by cell phone," Bongino said.

He then offered his own explanation, arguing that many conservative voters may simply be less likely to spend long periods of time answering survey questions.

"I have a theory on it. You may think it's crazy. I'm going to throw it out there. I'm not telling you Democrats don't work for a living. A lot of them do. A lot of Democrats are in unions and bust their ass, and they just don't vote like us. But there's a damn good chance if you're a conservative Republican, you probably have a freaking job, and you're not answering a pollster spending 20 minutes on the phone," Bongino said.

For Bongino, the repeated polling misses reinforce his central argument that conservative voters should not become discouraged by unfavorable numbers.

"There is a reason that the polls have been wrong over and over," he said.

Bongino closed by returning to turnout, arguing that Republicans can withstand weak polling if their voters actually participate.

"If you show up, we will be okay. If you don't, we will lose, and your country will go down in flames."

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