Dan Bongino is arguing that the political media’s increasingly dire coverage of President Donald Trump and Republicans is being driven in part by election data that does not support predictions of a sweeping Democratic victory.

Bongino said voters should distinguish between polling, which attempts to forecast an outcome, and early voting data showing ballots already being cast. He argued that the actual numbers in several states are not showing the kind of Democratic surge suggested by some political narratives.

"Folks, I think a lot of this freakout too, the media freakout, the Trump wants to blow up L.A. and San Diego hoax. This is a response to data, the data about this election, the numbers, the actual numbers," Bongino said.

He urged his audience to focus on voting patterns rather than hypothetical polling models.

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"Forget the polling for a second. Polling or hypothetical numbers, okay? Actual early vote numbers are not in any way supporting this narrative that there is some tidal wave of blue coming across on election night," Bongino said.

Bongino cited election analyst Seth Keshel while discussing North Carolina, Florida, Arizona, and Texas. According to Bongino, those states provide evidence that early voting trends are not matching predictions of a Democratic wave.

"Here's Seth Keshel. He's like, hey man, it's really interesting how these poll defenders are now discounting early vote and mail analysis where we have actual numbers," Bongino said.

He pointed first to North Carolina and Florida.

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"He talks about North Carolina. The trend is nowhere near a blue wave. How Florida? They're not talking about a blue wave in Florida. Poll just came out today showing the Republican candidates at the top of the ticket up by five or more," Bongino said.

He then turned to Arizona and Texas, arguing that Texas in particular has moved significantly to the right compared with previous presidential election cycles.

"Arizona. You can read it right here. These are actual numbers, not polls, reinforcing what I've been telling you: Texas is turning blue. Could we lose in Texas? If you don't show up, we will. I'm just going on the numbers," Bongino said.

Citing Keshel again, Bongino said Texas is performing more favorably for Republicans compared with both 2016 and 2020.

"Here's Keshel again. Here's some facts about Texas. It's five points right of 2016, eight points right of 2020. The Latino vote at minimum is 10 stronger than 2016 across the board," Bongino said.

He argued that those numbers help explain what he characterized as growing concern among Democrats and political commentators.

"Folks, here's another reason they're freaking out. The early voting numbers do not look good for them," he said.

Bongino then shifted to election integrity, saying the Trump administration is also increasing enforcement against illegal voting.

"They're freaking out too because the Trump administration, President Trump, is cracking down on voter fraud," Bongino said.

He cited FBI Director Kash Patel and referred to four noncitizens in Philadelphia who, according to the charges he discussed, were accused of knowingly voting illegally in the 2024 election.

"Here's Kash Patel, FBI director. American elections are for American citizens. Period. Here's four more arrests. Four more. There have been a multitude of these things. Four non-citizens in Philadelphia have now been charged with illegally voting in a 2024 election," Bongino said.

He said the allegations involve individuals who knew they were not American citizens but voted anyway.

"According to the charges, they knew they were not U.S. citizens and voted anyway. The FBI and HSI investigate, and now they're facing federal charges. If you knowingly violate our election laws, expect law enforcement to find you," Bongino said.

Bongino also pointed to a release from the U.S. Attorney’s Office and said the latest cases followed others he had previously discussed.

"Here's a release from the U.S. Attorney's Office. In case you think Cash just woke up one morning and made it up for more people, in addition to the cases we covered last week and the week before that," he said.

For Bongino, the combination of early voting trends and election fraud prosecutions undermines several arguments he says have been repeatedly presented to Republican voters.

"Now do you see why the Doomers and the Democrats are freaking out? None of their arguments are sticking. There's a blue wave. The numbers don't back that up. Nobody cheats in elections. The numbers don't back that up either," Bongino said.

He also rejected suggestions that concerns about illegal voting are unsupported because nobody is being prosecuted.

"The Doomers. Nobody's being arrested for voting in elections. League. That's not happening. Like nothing you're saying is happening is happening," Bongino said.

Bongino concluded by emphasizing turnout, warning Republicans against allowing negative political coverage or predictions to convince them that participation does not matter.

"And you're supposed to sit at home. You want France here, folks? This is a national security election. There's a reminder every day."

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