A recent poll from an Iowa pollster Ann Selzer has sparked significant debate and skepticism, showing Kamala Harris leading former President Donald Trump by a narrow margin in Iowa, a state Trump carried by eight points in 2020.

Released by the Des Moines Register/Mediacom, the poll places Harris at 47% and Trump at 44%, marking an unexpected shift in favor of Kamala Harris.

The poll found Harris with a surprising 19-point lead among senior voters, a demographic that had previously supported Trump.

Celebrate Trump's Historic 2024 Victory with the Exclusive Trump 47th President Collection!

During an interview on the “2Way” podcast, Selzer acknowledged that she was surprised by the results, explaining that Harris has “clearly leaped into a leading position.”

However, the poll’s methodology and findings have drawn scrutiny from conservative commentators, including political analyst Ryan Girdusky.

He pointed to inconsistencies in the poll’s cross-tabulations, questioning why Selzer’s sample had a higher proportion of Democrats than in previous years and suggesting that some results, particularly Harris’s apparent lead among senior women, may be statistical outliers.

In her discussion with political reporter Mark Halperin, Selzer appeared uncertain about some aspects of her own data.

In one part of the interview, she was confused by what the ‘D’ and ‘R’ meant in her own crosstabs.

When Halperin inquired about criticisms regarding the poll’s sample composition, Selzer responded, “I haven’t cross-checked these numbers to know how that actually pans out.” She added that, according to her results, Harris held a strong advantage among senior women, winning by more than a two-to-one margin in that demographic.

NEW: Polling guru Ann Selzer, who released the poll in Iowa showing Harris up by 3, apparently doesn’t know what the “D” and “R” mean in her cross tabs.

Halperin: Can you respond to the criticisms of your poll?

Selzer: That’s a little difficult for me to see. What, what, what… pic.twitter.com/EylbafHO7U

— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) November 4, 2024

This poll caught the attention of CNN’s State of the Union host, Dana Bash, who raised the topic with political commentator Kristen Soltis Anderson.

Bash acknowledged skepticism from Iowa Republicans who believe Harris’s support may be overstated, though she noted a trend among senior women and older voters leaning towards Harris.

Anderson praised Selzer’s track record as a pollster but cautioned that sometimes even the best polling data can produce “outliers.”

She mentioned her own research, which showed a slight Democratic trend among senior women but not to the extent indicated by Selzer’s poll.

“This election could be a reboot,” Anderson suggested, pointing to other national polls that show Harris making gains among young voters and people of color, echoing the “Obama coalition.”

However, she also noted that Trump’s campaign could see a “realignment,” with potential gains among younger voters and voters of color offsetting any losses among seniors.

Anderson emphasized the broader uncertainty surrounding this election, stating, “We’re not sure of anything right now.”

National polling data, including recent averages from RealClearPolitics, reflect a highly competitive race.

Trump currently holds a slight national edge over Harris with 48.4% to her 48.3%, underscoring the close margins as both candidates vie for key voter groups.

The unexpected results from Iowa and the ongoing neck-and-neck national polls illustrate the complexity of the 2024 race, with each side strategizing to secure a diverse coalition of supporters.

The opinions expressed by contributors and/or content partners are their own and do not necessarily reflect the views of LifeZette. Contact us for guidelines on submitting your own commentary.