The Gateway Pundit is raising fresh questions about the 2026 midterm elections after reported vote totals showed Republican candidates for lower ballot offices outperforming GOP candidates for Senate and governor. The outlet described the results as another troubling pattern across multiple states.

Earlier Saturday, the publication reported that results from 59 United States Senate and gubernatorial races allegedly followed a common formula. The analysis, published by Truth Is Freedom, claimed an election algorithm delivered favorable outcomes to Democratic candidates.

The proposed formula was Republican 2026 = 0.85 × Trump 2024, while Democrat 2026 = Harris 2024 + 0.15 × Trump 2024. Under that calculation, 850 of every 1,000 Trump points stayed Republican while 150 landed on the Democratic side.

THE 15% BAND

Look at this chart. 59 races. Senate and governor. States ordered from reddest to bluest in 2024. The solid lines are 2024. The dashed lines are 2026. The shaded bands are what moved. One formula fits all of it: Republican 2026 = 0.85 × Trump 2024 Democrat 2026 = Harris 2024 + 0.15 × Trump 2024 For every 1,000 Trump points, 850 stayed Republican. 150 landed on the Democratic side. The numbers: Senate: Republicans kept ~85% of Trump’s share Governor: ~86% Variation explained: 88% What makes it strange: It didn’t matter how red the state was. Wyoming, Ohio, Illinois, Massachusetts: same 15% (p = 0.69). The Democratic gain was sized by Trump’s vote, not Harris’s. The Harris part is zero. The 0.85 beat both standard election-swing models in every set of races. Drop any single state and the multiplier stays between 0.846 and 0.853. Why seats flipped: At 0.85, any state where Trump got under about 58.5% falls below 50%. Texas, Kansas, Iowa, Ohio, South Carolina, North Carolina: all under that line. All flipped. What this means: Midterms are messy. This one isn’t. Two sets of races, different candidates, different campaigns, and the same 15% decrease almost everywhere. A pattern this even demands answers at the ballot level: paper ballot hand counts, poll-book check-ins against votes counted, and voter files showing who actually turned out. The numbers raise the question. The ballots can answer it. — Truth Is Freedom (@TruthAnswersAll) November 6, 2026

The analysis said Republican Senate candidates retained approximately 85% of Trump’s share. Republican gubernatorial candidates reportedly retained approximately 86%, producing what the report presented as a remarkably consistent pattern across races.

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According to the analysis, the alleged 15% movement appeared regardless of how Republican or Democratic a state was. Wyoming, Ohio, Illinois, and Massachusetts were cited as examples, with the report listing p = 0.69 for the pattern.

The report further claimed that Democratic gains were sized according to Trump’s vote rather than Harris’s vote. It described the Harris component as zero, making Trump’s 2024 support the central variable in the alleged shift.

The 0.85 multiplier reportedly outperformed two standard election swing models across every collection of races examined. Removing any single state from the analysis allegedly left the multiplier between 0.846 and 0.853.

The Gateway Pundit compared the findings with its reporting after the 2020 election. That earlier coverage focused on what the outlet called the impossible “Drop and Roll” pattern observed in several battleground states.

A separate review from Jeff O'Donnell, known as The Lone Raccoon on X, examined results in several states. He focused on Republican candidates for offices such as school superintendent, agriculture commissioner, state treasurer, state auditor, and mine inspector.

The findings suggested some Republican candidates for those less prominent offices received substantially more votes than GOP candidates in marquee Senate and governor contests. That mismatch became the central question in O'Donnell’s review of the 2026 results.

In Georgia, the outlet sarcastically noted that the Republican agriculture commissioner candidate appeared to be unusually popular.

GEORGIA

Georgia was wild - they must have worried about Ossoff. Republican Senate Candidate got 210,000 less votes than the Republican Agriculture Commissioner and 190,00 less than Governor. In a total coincidence, Democrat Senator Ossoff got almost 200,000 votes more than the Democrat governor candidate. However they did this (and I will be opining soon) it allowed them to fine tune which candidates got votes vacuumed away. — The Lone Raccoon (@FSociety_1942) November 6, 2026

Arizona produced another curious comparison involving Republican candidates for school superintendent and mine inspector.

ARIZONA

Did I forget you? How could I. It does my heart proud to think of all those proud Republicans in AZ excited to cast their votes for School Superintendent and Mine Inspector! https://t.co/Lbm92b3AJX — The Lone Raccoon (@FSociety_1942) November 7, 2026

Ohio supplied one of the largest specific differences cited. The Republican state auditor candidate reportedly received almost 300,000 more votes than the Republican candidates for governor and Senate, a disparity the outlet presented as difficult to accept at face value.

OHIO Same pattern.

Your Republican candidate for Auditor had almost 300,000 more votes than your Republican governor or Senate candidate. Must have been all those "Auditor" yard signs. I will say (because the fraud deniers will) that the independent candidates did siphon off an unusual number of votes. But that in itself is suspicious. People do not split their tickets that often. — The Lone Raccoon (@FSociety_1942) November 5, 2026

In Kansas, the Republican state treasurer candidate reportedly finished with 50,000 more votes than Republican Senator Roger Marshall. Marshall lost his race to a candidate the source described only as an old white guy.

KANSAS

Wow you have a popular Treasurer. 50,000 more votes than for the Republican Senate candidate. And that Insurance Commissioner... that's what gets people out to vote! Pattern remains. https://t.co/3ZsFqlnFe1 — The Lone Raccoon (@FSociety_1942) November 5, 2026

O'Donnell summarized his view bluntly: “The bad guys had 2 years to come up with new methods. They used it well.”

The bad guys had 2 years to come up with new methods. They used it well.

— The Lone Raccoon (@FSociety_1942) November 5, 2026

Jim Hoft likewise accused Democrats of becoming sloppy and reckless in their eagerness to defeat MAGA candidates.

Hoft argued that the reported statewide differences require an extraordinary degree of credulity. Borrowing a phrase associated in the article with Hillary Clinton, it said the results require the “willing suspension of disbelief.”

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