President Donald Trump has amplified an election analysis alleging that dozens of Senate and gubernatorial races in the 2026 midterms followed a remarkably consistent voting pattern. The claim centers on what its author calls the 85/15 Algorithm, a formula purporting to trace a broad shift from Republicans to Democrats.

The analysis originally appeared on the Truth Is Freedom X account. Trump later shared a post from the Truth Social account Truth Is Freedom presenting the alleged pattern across 59 Senate and gubernatorial contests.

The post compared results from the 2026 elections with Trump’s performance against Kamala Harris in 2024. According to the analysis, Republican candidates received approximately 85% of Trump’s 2024 vote share, while Democrats gained an amount equivalent to the remaining 15 percentage points.

The formula presented in the post states that the Republican share in 2026 equals 0.85 multiplied by Trump’s 2024 vote share. The Democrat share equals Harris’s 2024 vote share plus 0.15 multiplied by Trump’s 2024 share.

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Put more simply, the analysis contends that for every 1,000 Trump points from 2024, roughly 850 remained with the Republican candidate while 150 landed on the Democrat side. That alleged split is the foundation of the entire 15% band theory.

Republicans retained about 85% of Trump’s share in Senate races and 86% in gubernatorial races, according to the analysis. The formula reportedly explains 88% of the variation across the contests examined.

The analysis portrays the uniformity as the most suspicious element. It says the political character of a state made little difference, with Wyoming, Ohio, Illinois, and Massachusetts all displaying approximately the same 15% shift.

The statistical value given for that comparison was p = 0.69. The post further contends that the Democrat gain was sized according to Trump’s 2024 vote total rather than the vote total received by Harris.

According to the analysis, removing any single state from the calculation did not meaningfully disrupt the result. The multiplier reportedly remained within a narrow range between 0.846 and 0.853.

The analysis also claims the 0.85 multiplier performed better than standard election swing models in every group of races tested. That consistency across different contests, candidates, and campaigns is presented as evidence that the outcome was anything but ordinary midterm turbulence.

At the 0.85 level, the post says any state where Trump received less than approximately 58.5% in 2024 would fall below 50% for the Republican candidate in 2026. Texas, Kansas, Iowa, Ohio, South Carolina, and North Carolina were all identified as sitting below that threshold.

Every one of those states flipped. The analysis argues that two different groups of races, involving different candidates and campaigns, still produced nearly the same 15% decrease across the map.

THE 15% BAND

Look at this chart. 59 races. Senate and governor. States ordered from reddest to bluest in 2024. The solid lines are 2024. The dashed lines are 2026. The shaded bands are what moved. One formula fits all of it: Republican 2026 = 0.85 × Trump 2024 Democrat 2026 = Harris 2024 + 0.15 × Trump 2024 For every 1,000 Trump points, 850 stayed Republican. 150 landed on the Democratic side. The numbers: Senate: Republicans kept ~85% of Trump’s share Governor: ~86% Variation explained: 88% What makes it strange: It didn’t matter how red the state was. Wyoming, Ohio, Illinois, Massachusetts: same 15% (p = 0.69). The Democratic gain was sized by Trump’s vote, not Harris’s. The Harris part is zero. The 0.85 beat both standard election-swing models in every set of races. Drop any single state and the multiplier stays between 0.846 and 0.853. Why seats flipped: At 0.85, any state where Trump got under about 58.5% falls below 50%. Texas, Kansas, Iowa, Ohio, South Carolina, North Carolina: all under that line. All flipped. What this means: Midterms are messy. This one isn’t. Two sets of races, different candidates, different campaigns, and the same 15% decrease almost everywhere. A pattern this even demands answers at the ballot level: paper ballot hand counts, poll-book check-ins against votes counted, and voter files showing who actually turned out. The numbers raise the question. The ballots can answer it. — Truth Is Freedom (@TruthAnswersAll) November 6, 2026

The Gateway Pundit connected the new allegation to its previous reporting about the 2020 election. That reporting described what the outlet called an impossible Drop and Roll pattern involving late night ballot dumps for Biden in battleground states.

According to that earlier analysis, later ballot batches settled into nearly perfect ratios between Biden and Trump, helping solidify Democratic victories. The Gateway Pundit first published that analysis on November 18, 2020, and said the associated video has received millions of views.

The 2020 pattern remains unexplained by any election expert without invoking the likelihood of fraud. Their latest report presents the 2026 15% band as eerily similar because of the alleged mathematical consistency appearing across numerous races and politically different states.

Trump’s decision to share the Truth Is Freedom post placed the 85/15 Algorithm allegation at the center of renewed scrutiny over the 2026 results. The analysis ultimately rests on its claim that Republican support repeatedly landed near the same fraction of Trump’s 2024 share, while Democrats received the remainder.

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