Peter St Onge says a growing populist movement is reshaping Latin America as voters increasingly reject socialist governments over stagnant economies, crime and inflation, with potential consequences for American politics as Hispanic voters closely follow developments across the region.

"Latin America is going populist in a continental wave that's got the pink hairs running for cover," St Onge said.

He pointed to Brazil as the latest example, arguing that populist candidates dramatically outperformed expectations in the first round of the presidential election while also gaining ground in Congress.

"Last week it was Brazil who's done being socialism's lab rats, with populists crushing the first round of the presidential election, dramatically outperforming expectations, and now running 83% odds of winning outright, according to Kalshi, along with a slew of seats in Congress, where the ruling Socialists lost two in three of their Senate seats," he said.

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St Onge connected the broader political shift to changes in U.S. foreign assistance, claiming that eight consecutive elections across Latin America have gone to populist candidates since the Trump administration cut aid programs that he accused of influencing elections.

"Brazil brings it to eight out of eight elections won by populists across Latin America since Trump defunded U.S. aid, the left's tax-funded election-fixing operation. Your tax dollars no longer at work electing socialists in Brazil."

But St Onge argued that the political movement goes well beyond U.S. aid, saying voters are responding to years of poor economic growth and persistent crime.

"So it's going on beyond USAID. For one, it turns out socialism did not work again in the last decade. GDP growth across the region has been stagnant at under 1% per year."

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He also blamed left-wing governments for failing to aggressively confront crime.

"Meanwhile, Latin American socialists like American socialists prefer to hug criminals instead of locking them up, so incomes are stagnant, streets are unsafe. Eventually, voters connect the dots."

St Onge held up Argentina and El Salvador as the two most important models influencing the regional shift.

"The most dramatic so far, and models for the rest, are Argentina and El Salvador."

In Argentina, he praised President Javier Milei for moving rapidly to address inflation and the country’s fiscal deficit.

"In Argentina, Javier Milei inherited 300% inflation and a budget deficit of 5% of GDP, U.S. terms a trillion and a half. It took him literally three months to balance the budget, and within a year, he slashed inflation fifteenfold."

St Onge also pointed to El Salvador and President Nayib Bukele’s anti-gang policies as an example other countries are studying.

"In El Salvador, Bukele inherited one of the worst homicide rates on earth. Statistically, one in 12 Salvadorans would be murdered at some point in their life; he slashed it by 99 percent using the crazy idea of locking up gang members and repeat offenders."

He added, "El Salvador is now safer than Canada."

According to St Onge, the combination of economic reform and aggressive crime policies has made both leaders influential across the region.

"Now populists across Latin America are studying the Malay model and the Bukele model because Latino voters apparently consider not getting murdered a kitchen table issue."

St Onge said the political map of Latin America has shifted dramatically, leaving only a small number of left-wing governments outside the region’s communist states.

"Now, aside from communist dictatorships in Cuba and Venezuela, and junior dictatorship Nicaragua, there's only three left-wing governments left in Latin America out of 20: Uruguay, Guatemala, and Mexico."

He said Guatemala could change direction next year, while Mexico remains particularly important for Americans because of its size, proximity, and political influence.

"Guatemala could flip next year. Uruguay is not voting for a couple of years, but Mexico is the interesting one for Americans."

St Onge identified Ricardo Playago as a rising populist figure in Mexico but noted that the country’s next presidential election is not scheduled until 2030.

"The good news is Mexico's got a rising populist star in Ricardo Playago, the bad news is Mexico's next election is not until 2030, and the ruling left populist Morena is weakening, but remains popular since it buys votes like a 1920 Chicago machine, and is riding the same elbows up anti-Trump nationalism as Canada's useless prime minister."

He said the key question is whether Mexican voters eventually become frustrated with sluggish economic growth and crime in the same way he believes other Latin American electorates already have.

"Still, 2030 is a long way off. We will see if Mexicans lose patience with Moreno's slow growth and high crime like the rest of the region."

St Onge then turned to the potential implications for the United States, arguing that political changes in Latin America could influence Hispanic voters domestically.

"This matters for the long-suffering people of Latin America, but it also matters because one in 7u.S. voters are now Hispanic, and many pay close attention to what's happening in Latin America."

He said examples from El Salvador and Argentina could resonate with Hispanic households focused on crime and inflation.

"When Bukele's crime miracle, or Milei's inflation miracle, are kitchen table topics for U.S. Hispanics, it concentrates minds."

St Onge concluded by pointing to what he described as a major shift in Hispanic support between the 2016 and 2024 elections.

"U.S. Hispanics are already abandoning Democrats in droves in 2016; Trump lost them by 38 points. In 2024, he was within three points."

For St Onge, the possibility that Latin America’s populist movement could influence Hispanic voting behavior in the United States would produce a particularly striking political outcome.

"If Latin America flips U.S. Hispanics to a Republican after Democrats imported 30 million, it would be one of the most delicious ironies in American history."

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