WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
  • Xavier Becerra leads Steve Hilton by 5.6 points in a new campaign commissioned poll.
  • Becerra received 45.7%, Hilton drew 40.1%, and 14.1% of voters remained undecided.
  • The margin shifted 9.4 points from an earlier survey showing Becerra ahead by 15 points.
  • Nearly 58.8% said California is headed in the wrong direction, compared with 28.1% who approved of its direction.
  • Neither candidate posted positive overall favorability numbers, though Becerra maintained an advantage among undecided voters forced to choose.

California’s contest for governor has taken another sharp turn after a new survey showed Democrat Xavier Becerra’s once commanding lead over Republican Steve Hilton shrinking to 5.6 points. With 14.1% of voters undecided, the race remains unsettled.

The poll was commissioned by Hilton’s campaign and conducted by pollster David Wolfson on Oct. 1 and Oct. 2, immediately after the candidates’ first debate. It surveyed 1,020 California voters.

Becerra received 45.7% support in the survey, while Hilton drew 40.1%. Another 14.1% of respondents said they remained undecided, leaving nearly 1 in 7 voters still available in a race that had previously appeared far less competitive.

An earlier poll commissioned by Hilton had Becerra leading 52% to 37%, according to a survey previously reported by the Post. That advantage of 15 points has now collapsed to less than six points.

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The movement came from both directions. Becerra’s support dropped 6.3 percentage points from the earlier poll, while Hilton gained 3.1 points, creating a 9.4-point shift in the margin between the two candidates.

The survey also delivered a bleak assessment of California’s direction. A substantial 58.8% of voters said the state is headed in the wrong direction, while only 28.1% said California is moving in the right direction.

Another 13.1% said they were unsure about the state’s direction. Those numbers are not exactly a glowing review, and the sour outlook could provide an opening for Hilton as he campaigns on frustration with high costs and Democratic leadership.

Becerra, however, maintained a clear advantage when undecided respondents were pressed to make a choice. Among those voters, 72.5% leaned toward Becerra, while 27.5% leaned toward Hilton.

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The results suggest that Becerra could still benefit substantially if those undecided voters eventually follow their stated leanings. At the same time, their initial refusal to select either candidate keeps a sizable portion of the electorate formally uncommitted.

Neither candidate emerged from the survey with particularly strong personal ratings. Becerra was viewed favorably by 44.1% of respondents and unfavorably by 45.3%, placing his unfavorable rating slightly above his favorable number.

Hilton’s ratings were weaker overall, with 35.5% viewing him favorably and 50.7% viewing him unfavorably. The figures show that the tightening contest has not translated into broad personal popularity for either candidate.

The poll followed a highly watched Oct. 1 debate between Becerra and Hilton. About 11.2% of respondents said they watched all or nearly all of the debate on CNN, while another 9.5% said they watched part of it.

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Nearly 20% said they saw clips or highlights online or in news coverage. Another 19.9% said they followed coverage of the debate without watching the event itself, giving the contest a broader reach beyond its direct television audience.

The latest results depart significantly from several recent public polls that showed Becerra holding a much wider lead. They also arrived as Hilton accused Becerra of lying about his immigrant background, adding another point of conflict to the tightening campaign.

“Unlike Becerra (because I’ve been out there listening to the people), I know Becerra’s policies have destroyed the California Dream. My plans will restore it,” Hilton wrote on X.

Hilton followed with another attack focused directly on the candidates’ family backgrounds. “Unlike Xavier Becerra, I am an immigrant. Unlike Xavier Becerra, my father was an immigrant. My stepfather, too. My whole family,” he added.

Becerra has previously said that his parents moved to the United States as immigrants

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