WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
  • Barack Obama is heading to Michigan to support Democrat Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed.
  • El-Sayed is reportedly struggling to secure black voters who backed Haley Stevens during the Democrat primary.
  • Democrat strategist Jamal Simmons warned that El-Sayed must directly engage those voters and prioritize their concerns.
  • Republican Mike Rogers could benefit if black voters support him or remain unmotivated to cast ballots.

Abdul El-Sayed’s campaign isn't revealing what its internal polling shows, which isn't unusual. Still, its recent activity suggests the Democrat Senate candidate may be worried about his standing with black voters in Michigan.

Former President Barack Hussein Obama is heading to Michigan to help El-Sayed, according to reporting cited by PJ Media writers Scott Pinsker and Chris Queen. The looming appearance has sparked questions about why Obama is getting involved now.

Pinsker believes Obama sees El-Sayed, described as a Taylor Swift fan, as part of the Democratic Party’s next generation. Obama’s visit, in that telling, is calculated rather than casual.

“We know Obama isn’t going there on a whim — because that’s not who he is,” Pinsker wrote. His argument is that Obama has been considering the political value of this appearance for some time.

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Obama must engage with younger Democrats and the rising Democratic Socialists of America if he wants influence with them. El-Sayed, meanwhile, receives support from the biggest political heavyweight currently available to his party.

Obama is seen as someone with a reputation inside the Democrat Party for helping himself before helping others. It similarly describes El-Sayed as operating from the same political cloth.

Both men have another concern in common. Neither wants Republicans to retain a Senate majority, and Michigan is described as a state the Democrat Party must win.

A growing consensus is that Obama’s Michigan appearance is being driven by El-Sayed’s difficulties with black voters in Detroit and across the state. The left-leaning MS Now is credited with inadvertently exposing that weakness.

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The political math is hardly mysterious. A Michigan Democrat running for the Senate cannot afford to struggle with black turnout, and both El-Sayed and Obama understand the danger.

Democrat strategist Jamal Simmons raised the same warning after El-Sayed defeated Haley Stevens in the Democrat primary. “It’s a risky bet to assume Black voters will come home out of natural physics,” Simmons told The Hill in August.

“He needs to reach out to them directly and prioritize their issues over the political agenda he may prefer to discuss,” Simmons added. He said El-Sayed needed to research what Stevens voters wanted and determine how he could help them obtain it.

Stevens had secured strong black support during the primary. It also argues that black voters have not forgotten El-Sayed’s repeated attacks on a Democrat establishment heavily influenced by black leadership.

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The Washington Examiner similarly reported that El-Sayed faced a difficult task convincing black Stevens voters to return in the fall and support him. The publication also highlighted his unsuccessful attempts to close that political gap.

Scott Jennings said El-Sayed had significant trouble with African American voters during the Democrat primary and had not secured their support afterward. Jennings argued that Obama was needed to help address the problem.

“They need Obama to try to do that. I'm not sure it's going to be the total answer, but it's not really a surprising development to me,” Jennings said.

The Examiner described one particularly awkward response from El-Sayed. “He has seemingly yet to develop an answer to his problem. When asked how he would respond to black voters who do not support him, El-Sayed pointed to his own African identity rather than directly addressing why those voters might be skeptical of his candidacy.”

The Examiner cited Irina Tsukerman, a political analyst and president of Scarab Rising, who said that answer was awkward because black Americans and African immigrants may have distinct political histories and experiences. El-Sayed has continued using that same talking point.

HuffPost also reported tension among black voters in the Detroit area despite the positive atmosphere surrounding El-Sayed’s campaign events. State political leaders told the outlet that some voters remained wary after largely backing Stevens in the primary.

“I think there needs to be more solidarity with Black people,” said Kimberly Fisher, a small business owner running to represent parts of Detroit and Warren in the Michigan legislature. “Detroit is the Blackest city in the country, and there’s been no engagement.”

Republican Mike Rogers should target this vulnerability in what it expects to be a very close race. If Rogers wins even a small share of the black vote, or if some black voters stay home, El-Sayed could face serious trouble.

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And let us not forget what El-Sayed said about Obama back in 2020...

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