Democrats dreaming of a Senate takeover may want to keep the champagne corked. CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten warned Wednesday that recent polling leads in several crucial states could prove far less durable once voters actually cast their ballots.

During an appearance on “CNN News Central,” Enten focused on Ohio, Iowa and Michigan. Republicans have repeatedly performed better in those states than September polling suggested, creating an uncomfortable historical pattern for Democrats approaching November.

The issue is not merely that polls have missed the final results. According to the figures Enten presented, the Republican advantage over September polling has been large enough to wipe away the Democratic leads he highlighted in this year’s contests.

That leaves Democrats confronting a familiar problem. Favorable polling can create an encouraging political picture, but the results in major races have not always matched those earlier numbers when Election Day arrived.

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Enten framed the concern with a blunt question about whether Democrats could once again watch promising polling collapse.

“And, you know, fool me once, shame on you. Fool me four times, I just have to ask the question: could it happen again?”

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The 2024 results offer one set of warning signs. In major races that year, Republicans outperformed September polling by 9 percentage points in Iowa, 6 percentage points in Ohio and 5 percentage points in Michigan.

Iowa produced the largest Republican overperformance among those three states in 2024. Yet the gaps in Ohio and Michigan were also substantial enough to matter in races where Democratic polling leads appeared vulnerable.

The same basic pattern was present during the 2018 midterms, when President Donald Trump was not on the ballot. Republicans still exceeded September polling in major statewide races across Iowa, Ohio and Michigan.

In 2018, Republicans ran 6 percentage points ahead of September polling in Iowa and another 6 percentage points ahead in Ohio. The gap reached 8 percentage points in Michigan, making it the largest polling miss among those three states that year.

Those numbers give Enten’s warning its political weight. Republican candidates beat the September polling in all three states during both sets of major races discussed, despite the elections occurring under different ballot circumstances.

Another performance along those lines could decide which party controls the Senate. Enten described a scenario in which Republican victories in Ohio, Iowa and Michigan would leave the chamber divided 50 to 50.

That outcome could occur even with Democrats winning Senate races in Texas, Georgia, North Carolina and Alaska. In other words, sweeping those four contests would not necessarily hand Democrats control if Republicans also captured the three states at the center of Enten’s analysis.

A 50 to 50 Senate would place the deciding vote with Vice President JD Vance. His tie-breaking vote would give Republicans control of the chamber, leaving Democrats short despite victories in the four states included in Enten’s scenario.

The warning from CNN is straightforward and inconvenient for Democrats eager to celebrate favorable polling. If Republicans again outrun the September numbers in Ohio, Iowa and Michigan, the Democratic path to a Senate takeover could disappear when the votes replace the surveys.

Enten did not present the polling leads as guarantees. Instead, he pointed to repeated Republican overperformance and asked whether the same polling failure could happen once more, with control of the Senate hanging in the balance.

For Democrats, the arithmetic is especially unforgiving. Winning Texas, Georgia, North Carolina and Alaska would still produce a Republican controlled Senate under Enten’s scenario if the GOP prevails in Iowa, Ohio and Michigan and Vance casts the deciding vote.

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