WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
  • Flávio Bolsonaro led Lula 47.24% to 44.91% with 99% of reporting completed Sunday night.
  • The presidential contest will proceed to an October 25 runoff after Flávio fell below the 50% needed for an outright victory.
  • Conservative candidates scored major victories across São Paulo, Minas Gerais, Paraná, Rio Grande do Sul, and Santa Catarina.
  • Michelle Bolsonaro won a Senate seat, while the Liberal Party appeared positioned to hold the Senate’s largest bloc.

Brazil’s presidential election produced the kind of surprise that sends pollsters scrambling and conservatives cheering. For the year leading into the vote, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva had led the polls, even as his advantage narrowed in recent months.

Those polls missed the mark. With 99% of reporting completed around 8 p.m. Eastern Time on Sunday, Flávio Bolsonaro stood on top with 47.24% of the vote, compared with Lula’s 44.91%.

The margin was close, but the outcome was far better for Flávio than polling had suggested. Early in the night, he appeared to have a chance to capture the presidency without going through another round of voting.

Flávio held something like 51% of the vote at that stage. A candidate needs 50% to win without a runoff, but the more conservative states reported their results faster, and his share eventually declined.

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The presidential contest will therefore proceed to a runoff on October 25. The result still left Flávio looking very likely to win and raised the prospect of Brazil turning right, as numerous other Central and South American countries have done in recent years.

Such a shift would carry political and economic consequences across the region. Donald Trump and Marco Rubio would gain a new ally who would likely join the Shield of the Americas and assist the fight against cartels and other criminal organizations plaguing the Americas.

Brazil also has the largest economy in Latin America, making the result a potentially significant economic victory. A Flávio win would further isolate the remaining socialist governments in the region, including the government of Mexico’s Claudia Sheinbaum, while likely increasing pressure on Cuba and Nicaragua.

Argentine President Javier Milei celebrated Sunday night with a caption translated from Spanish: “FREEDOM ADVANCES IN BRAZIL. Congratulations, dear friend @FlavioBolsonaro, on this historic election against the communist Lula. The American continent belongs to citizens who want to live in freedom. I hope that soon we can start working together so that Argentina and Brazil continue to be great trading, cultural, and political partners. The opportunities for our nations, working together, are infinite. LONG LIVE FREEDOM, DAMN IT...!!”

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Neither Trump nor Rubio had publicly addressed the result by Sunday night. Several Republican members of Congress had already praised the news, however, including Rep. Carlos A. Gimenez of Florida and Sen. Bernie Moreno of Ohio.

The presidential race was only one piece of Brazil’s sweeping election night. Voters were also choosing all 27 governors, the entire Chamber of Deputies with its 513 seats, 54 of the Senate’s 81 seats, and state legislatures.

Results beyond the presidential contest offered additional encouragement for Brazil’s right. Lula’s side lost in the three states that typically decide Brazilian elections, adding to the evening’s broader conservative success.

São Paulo, Brazil’s largest state, reelected Tarcísio de Freitas as governor with about 63% of the vote. De Freitas previously served as infrastructure minister under former President Jair Bolsonaro.

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Minas Gerais, the second-largest state, elected Bolsonaro ally Cleitinho Azevedo with about 55%. Sérgio Moro, the judge who once sent Lula to prison, won Paraná while running on Bolsonaro’s party line.

A former army officer allied with Bolsonaro won Rio Grande do Sul with about 58% of the vote. Santa Catarina also reelected its governor from Bolsonaro’s party with about 68%.

Former first lady Michelle Bolsonaro, Jair Bolsonaro’s wife, won a Senate seat in the capital, Brasília, during her first run for office. Two more of Jair Bolsonaro’s sons and his brother also won elections, while the Liberal Party appeared positioned to hold the Senate’s largest bloc.

Anything could still happen before the October 25 runoff, but conservative excitement was already unmistakable. Brazil’s voters delivered a far stronger showing for the right than expected, bringing another Latin American rejection of socialism tantalizingly close.

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