Seasoned pollster and commentator Frank Luntz warned that flawed polling methods could be handing Democrats a false sense of security before the upcoming midterms. His message was blunt: The blue wave confidently advertised by polls and media outlets could collapse if Trump voters are again being missed.

On “CNN News Central” last week, Luntz first discussed President Donald Trump’s recent negative poll numbers before turning to weaknesses in the polling process. He was asked what the surveys might be missing and whether firms were sampling too few of the voters Trump typically brings out.

Luntz said Trump supporters often ignore calls from pollsters because they believe the system is rigged against them. That resistance can leave surveys measuring the broader electorate rather than the people who will actually show up and cast ballots.

“I got 2016 wrong. I believed in the exit polls,” he said, recalling polling that projected Hillary Clinton would defeat Trump in a landslide. Luntz said Trump voters instead walked away and refused to participate because they viewed polling as biased.

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The same distrust is now being reinforced among Republicans, according to Luntz, with voters being told not to trust polls or assume they are accurate. He stopped short of declaring the surveys wrong, saying the results would provide the test, but added, “But I’m still skeptical.”

For Luntz, turnout is the statistic that matters most once Election Day arrives. He argued that pollsters have ways to measure likely participation but are not necessarily using them, creating a risk that surveys capture how everyone feels instead of identifying who will actually vote.

He pointed to focus groups and individual interviews as tools that can distinguish engaged voters from people likely to remain on the sidelines. Some people are counted in polls even though they know they will not vote, he said, adding, “And turnout determines everything.”

Luntz urged viewers to study how pollsters frame turnout questions instead of accepting a simple claim that someone plans to vote. He said people lie, making stated intentions an unreliable measure when they are not tested against other signs of political engagement.

He listed three key questions: how interested a person is in the election, how often that person collects election or political news, and how often politics comes up with friends and neighbors. “Those are three essential questions in determining turnout. And I hate to say this, but a lot of polls don’t ask it,” Luntz said.

CNN then pressed Luntz on why he remained doubtful about the midterm picture even while acknowledging that Trump supporters feel frustrated and betrayed. His answer returned to his own miss: “I have to be skeptical because I got it wrong once before. And I was so convinced that I was right.”

CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten offered a similar warning earlier this month. He said Republicans retain a substantial chance of keeping their Senate majority if current polling is off by only a few points, especially given the industry’s record of favoring Democrats in past elections.

“Let’s just say we have the 2026 Senate polls, but if the polls are underestimating the Republicans by 3.5 points, which you know is really possible, because we’ve seen it through the history, right? You go back to 2020, that’s basically what happened,” Enten said.

Enten also said the pattern appeared in 2024 across several key states, including Texas. In his view, only a modest error would be needed for Republicans to move crucial toss-up Senate races into their column.

He cited the generic congressional ballot from early October, saying it underestimated Republicans in 14 of 16 elections since 1994 by an average of four points. That record, combined with possible polling misses, leaves room for voters to defy expectations in several prominent contests.

CNN: If early October polls keep the pattern of underestimating Republicans, they will keep the senate

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Senate polling in reliably Republican Texas, Ohio, Alaska, Kansas, and Iowa has shown the Democrat either ahead or within the margin of error. Georgia and North Carolina, both states Trump won in 2024, already have Senate contests rated “lean Democrat” or “likely Democrat.”

The House picture has produced similarly confident Democratic forecasts despite successful Republican mid-decade redistricting efforts. Various polls and media outlets have said Democrats will easily retake the lower chamber after the Supreme Court struck down part of the Voting Rights Act and eliminated race-based congressional districts.

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