It’s unconventional. Then again, so is Donald Trump. There has never been a political party convention of delegates in American history for a midterm election. That is what is happening in Dallas this week. Donald Trump made the call to convene. The question is whether they will answer, and whether it will make a difference in November.

If you pay attention to polls — and I’m not sure we should — Republicans are behind by 6 to 8 points on the generic ballot. The Cook Political Report currently has House races at 184 solid Democratic seats and 182 solid Republican seats. To hold the majority, either party must reach 218. House control usually comes down to about 20 to 25 races. Some of those races come down to only a few hundred votes.

That same report lists 37 races as undecided, including 21 toss-ups. Of those 21 toss-ups, 16 are currently held by Republicans, and each faces a tough test in November. Cook rates nine races as leaning Democratic and seven as leaning Republican. Betting and prediction markets have favored Democrats taking the House all year.

The Fox News poll, which many pollsters regard as one of the more accurate surveys, paints a similar picture. Fox has 184 solid Democratic seats and 208 solid Republican seats, with only 16 toss-ups. Of those toss-ups, 12 are currently held by Republicans. History is against the GOP as well. A midterm is typically treated as a referendum on the party that holds the White House.

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When you stack the history on top of the ratings, the odds clearly favor Democrats. I prefer to look at the election day turnout rather than polls, because turnout tells a story. Republican turnout since last November has been weak. Democrats are energized. And, that is a huge problem for Republicans.

What better way to energize the MAGA base than a rally? Some of MAGA is upset with Trump’s handling of Iran. Some have been upset over the Epstein files. Others have grown weary that no one has been held accountable for the 2020 election, January 6, COVID, and a list that could go on. Trump’s rally and convention in Dallas this week is about energizing that base, bringing them together.

The rally will focus on accomplishments many thought impossible only two years ago: a southern border that has been effectively closed, violent crime and murder at historic lows. This week, speakers will make sure the MAGA base remembers the Big Beautiful Bill that made permanent the tax cuts from Trump’s first administration. Without that bill, Americans would have faced the largest tax increase in history. There is no tax on tips, a break for Social Security recipients, and no tax on overtime. Will it be enough? No one can answer that question now.

Trump has had his back against the wall many times. He has been knocked down, but he has risen every time. His resilience, even at his age, cannot be questioned. He always gets back up and says, “Fight, Fight, Fight.”

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Failure to vote by his MAGA base would almost certainly mean two years of investigations and impeachments, until enough Republican senators turn on Trump as 2028 draws closer and he is removed from office. You don’t think so? Then you are not watching the same U.S. Senate I have been watching the last 18 months.

Most Americans will not see the Dallas convention. The networks will not broadcast it. Major publications, when they bother with stories, will not be glowing. Fox News, NewsNation, OAN, and Newsmax will give it extensive coverage, and that is just fine. This rally in Dallas is not about the masses. It is about Trump’s base, because there are enough votes there to swing House races that are sometimes decided by only a few hundred ballots.

I would never bet against Trump or the MAGA base. Trump has more than $400 million available in his PAC. The Democratic Party has $17 million cash on hand. Trump has said he will concentrate on those toss-ups — about 25 or 30 races. The strategy will be clear after this week. And, the question November will answer is whether Trump and MAGA can defy history again.

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