Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has escalated tensions with the United States by suggesting that he has prepared for the possibility of an American military invasion.

The extraordinary scenario joins a broader dispute involving tariffs, suspended trade negotiations, China and the European Union.

“I think you have a responsibility in these roles to look at extreme tail risk,” Carney said recently.

“That's just risk management. That's not a base case, but it would be irresponsible not to” prepare.

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Carney described an invasion as an extreme risk rather than a likely outcome.

Still, he argued that someone serving in his position would be irresponsible not to consider and prepare for such a possibility.

The military imbalance between the neighboring countries is substantial, according to armedforces.eu.

The database reports that the United States Armed Forces have about 1,333,030 active duty troops, while the Canadian Armed Forces have roughly 63,500 active personnel.

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The United States also has vastly more firepower available than Canada, according to the military database.

That comparison provides a stark backdrop to Carney’s decision to publicly discuss preparations for a possible American invasion.

Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney says he is preparing for a U.S. invasion and begging the European Union to let them join. Yeah, good luck with that guys, I’m sure Trump is terrified. Just wait until Alberta votes for independence… pic.twitter.com/QOporWgjlI

— Benny Johnson (@bennyjohnson) September 26, 2026

The remarks emerged as Carney criticized new United States tariffs that took effect without a formal trade agreement between the two countries.

Canada subsequently suspended its trade negotiations with the United States.

“Progress has not been enough to meet our objectives for Canadians. As a result, this evening, I have decided to suspend trade negotiations with the U.S. and have directed Canada’s negotiators to return to Ottawa,” Carney said in a statement in late August.

Carney also accused the United States of demanding too much while offering Canada too little.

He presented the proposed terms as financially unacceptable and questioned whether any resulting agreement could be trusted.

“In recent days, the United States proposed new terms that were uneconomic, unfair, and undermined the net benefits for Canada, and called into question the reliability of any deal. In short, they asked too much, and they offered too little,” Carney said during a press conference.

The Trump administration said this week that it does not see an urgent need to reach a trade agreement with Canada.

United States Trade Representative Jamieson Greer reinforced that message during a Friday interview.

“The reality is President Trump is comfortable where we are on Canada,” Greer said.

“They call us now and then, and we have good conversations about potential deals. But there's no urgency on our side.”

Carney traveled to China in January 2026, becoming the first Canadian leader to visit the country in nearly a decade, according to the South China Morning Post.

The trip sought a new strategic partnership and more diversified Canadian trade.

CBS News reported that Canada agreed to reduce its 100% tariff on Chinese electric cars in exchange for lower tariffs on Canadian farm products.

China also lowered duties on Canadian canola oil and suspended tariffs on peas, crab and lobster.

United States Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick accused Canada of turning away from the United States, according to the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation.

“We are a $30 trillion economy; we are the consumer of the world. Carney has a problem with us; he gets on a plane and goes to China? Does he think the Chinese economy is going to buy his stuff?” Lutnick reportedly told Bloomberg.

Carney has also advocated behind the scenes for greater Canadian integration with the European Union, according to reports.

The European Union has expressed a willingness to make Canada an “associate member.”

European Union President Ursula von der Leyen said in mid-September that she wants to work on “opening the door” for Canada.

Carney has embraced the associate membership offer.

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President Donald Trump criticized the potential arrangement, calling it both a “hostile act” and laughable.

“If it’s a good intention, that’s fine. If it’s a bad intention, we’ll put very heavy tariffs on Europe,” Trump said.

Trump has frequently argued that Canada should become the “51st state” of the United States, an idea Carney has rejected.

Despite the tariff fight and Carney’s invasion preparations, the prime minister recently maintained that he has a good relationship with Trump.

“From my perspective, we have a good relationship in the sense of we can pick up the phone and talk to each other about issues,” Carney told The New York Times.

“He's direct,” he added.

“I'm direct in terms of where positions are. It's much more efficient that way, and so you know that exists and that will continue to exist.”

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