CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten on Wednesday detailed a significant shift in indicators for control of the U.S. House of Representatives, saying prediction markets now give Republicans a stronger chance of retaining the chamber in the 2026 midterm elections while Democrats’ lead on the generic ballot trails their position from the last comparable cycle.

Citing the Kalshi prediction market during a “CNN News Central” segment with host Kate Bolduan, Enten noted that Republicans stood at a 37% chance of keeping the House at the time of the broadcast, up sharply from the spring.

“[I]f you go back six months ago, you go back to April, Kate Bolduan, what were we looking at? Well, we were looking at the Democrats with a very clear shot of taking control of the U.S. House of Representatives, according to the Kalshi Prediction Market odds,” he said.

“We saw them at an 83% chance. But those odds have gone plummeting down.”

“Now we’re talking about just a 63% chance, while the GOP’s chances — up like a rocket, up like gold, up from 17% to now a 37% chance,” Enten continued.

“So what looked like a pretty clear likely Democratic win in the House come next year has become much closer to a toss-up at this point, although still slightly leaning Democratic.”

Bolduan asked what was driving the change.

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Enten compared today’s national environment with the opening months of the last midterm under President Donald Trump.

“I want to take a look and compare it to 2017, 2018, right? Because that’s sort of the baseline. That was, of course, the first [President Donald] Trump term. That was where Democrats were sort of keeping pace,” he said.

“You go back to April, look at the generic congressional ballot, what’d you see? You see plus three Democrats in 2025 in April, you see plus three Democrats back in April of 2017. Now jump over to this side of the screen. What happens? Well, the Democrats are no longer keeping pace with the pace that they were setting back in 2017, 2018.”

“You look back in 2017, you saw that the Democrats had leaped up to an eight-point advantage. I remember covering this. I remember a lot of folks, including myself saying, you know what? Republicans look pretty decent right now, in terms of the fact that they had the House, they had the Senate, they had the presidency, but things were likely going to flip,” Enten added.

“And I was looking for the same signs this year. The bottom line is, it hasn’t happened, Kate Bolduan, it hasn’t happened. Democrats have stayed basically steady, they have fallen off the pace.”

Enten also addressed how map changes could influence outcomes even if Democrats hold a small national-vote lead. He said the current environment favors Republicans in seat conversion.

“If both sides max out, we’re probably looking at a GOP gain of plus seven House seats,” he said.

That calculation, he noted, does not include the potential effect of the Supreme Court’s pending actions concerning the Voting Rights Act and whether race can be used to draw congressional districts.

“If you add that in, then you could be looking about adding 10, 12, 15, 17 on top of this seven seats … It’s a different new landscape,” Enten said.

“And we’re not quite sure how much Democrats will have to be ahead in the national House vote in order to gain control.”

Issue polling reflects additional headwinds for Democrats heading into the next cycle, Enten said, pointing to a Washington Post/Ipsos survey conducted Sept. 11 to Sept. 15.

In that poll, Republicans led Democrats by 7 points on the economy, 13 points on immigration and 22 points on crime.

Enten previously noted on “CNN News Central” on Sept. 22 that these gaps could signal trouble for Democrats if they persist through the midterm year.

Taken together, the market odds, the slower movement in the generic ballot compared with 2017–2018, and the structure of competitive districts suggest a more competitive fight for House control than models showed in April.

Enten summarized the moment as one where Democrats retain an edge in national indicators but have not yet matched the surge they achieved ahead of the 2018 midterms, while Republicans benefit from favorable maps and stronger ratings on key issues.