Early voting and survey results are beginning to indicate shifts in the political landscape as two major gubernatorial contests move closer.

While Democrats continue to hold advantages in mail-in participation, Republicans are showing gains in turnout metrics that could impact outcomes in both New Jersey and Virginia.

New data released by Quantus Insights shows a smaller Democratic lead among mail voters in New Jersey compared with last year.

On the second day of mail-ballot returns, Democrats accounted for 62 percent of ballots, down from 66 percent at the same stage in 2024.

Republicans rose to 25 percent, up from 19 percent a year ago, while third-party and independent returns fell to 13 percent.

The overall margin shows Democrats leading Republicans in mail returns by 37 points, compared with a 47-point advantage at this point in 2024.

Day 2 https://t.co/6uidLev9gj pic.twitter.com/NVVjY1ZmiY

— Quantus Insights (@QuantusInsights) September 23, 2025

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The 10-point narrowing could signal a meaningful shift in a state where Democrats have traditionally relied on early voting to establish large leads ahead of Election Day.

Even modest improvements for Republicans in early ballot returns may strengthen their position in competitive down-ballot races and reduce the Democratic cushion entering the final stretch of voting.

In Virginia, turnout figures reported by Quantus show Republicans performing strongly in areas carried by President Donald Trump.

As of September 23, counties won by Trump were outpacing turnout in Harris-won counties by about 2.5 points (61.21 percent compared with 58.67 percent).

VIRGINIA: Trump-won counties are out-turning Harris-won counties by a margin of about 2.5 points (61.21% vs. 58.67%).

H/T: @MichaelPruser

— Quantus Insights (@QuantusInsights) September 23, 2025

Although the gap appears small, off-year gubernatorial elections often hinge on enthusiasm and turnout disparities.

Sustained or expanding advantages in Republican-leaning areas could become decisive in close contests, particularly in a state with both heavily Democratic urban centers and large conservative rural regions.

The state-level shifts come alongside national survey data also released by Quantus on September 22.

The poll showed President Trump’s approval rating at 48.2 percent and disapproval at 49.7 percent, representing a net improvement of 1.5 points since late August.

While the movement is modest, shifts of even a few points can matter in a polarized political climate.

According to the survey, the improvement was less about new supporters and more about a decline in strong opposition.

Some respondents moved out of the disapproval category, suggesting voter fatigue with ongoing political conflict or a re-evaluation of the administration’s record.

The poll also found Republican self-identification rising to 36 percent, with Democrats at 31 percent and Independents at 33 percent.

Analysts attributed part of the increase in Republican identification to the aftermath of the assassination of conservative activist Charlie Kirk earlier this month, which has heightened party identity and energized the base.

Taken together, the data portrays an electorate that may be entering a period of transition.

Democrats retain clear advantages in mail voting, but those margins are showing signs of erosion.

Republicans are not only holding their base but demonstrating improved organization in early voting and turnout efforts.

For Democrats, the challenge will be to protect their established lead in early voting and prevent further erosion.

For Republicans, the focus will be on maintaining enthusiasm and converting turnout gains into Election Day strength.

National sentiment may play a role as well.

The Quantus survey found that 54.3 percent of Americans believe the country is on the “wrong track.”

That level of discontent could pose difficulties for incumbents and the party most associated with the direction of the country, potentially boosting Republican candidates in state-level races.

While the numbers do not yet indicate a sweeping realignment, they point to developments worth watching.

New Jersey shows a reduced Democratic margin in mail-in ballots, Virginia’s turnout figures favor Republicans, and national polling suggests GOP confidence is steadying after a turbulent summer.

Together, the data signals potential for Republicans to gain ground in upcoming elections.