A newly released report from Democrat-aligned data firm Blue Rose Research is raising internal alarms within the Democratic Party following a detailed analysis of the 2024 election cycle.

The 33-page report, titled “2024 Retrospective and Looking Forward,” was released Monday and draws from more than 26 million voter responses, offering a wide-ranging look at trends that could present lasting challenges for Democrats.

The data highlights notable demographic shifts favoring Republicans, particularly among younger voters, politically disengaged individuals, and immigrant communities.

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One of the most striking takeaways is that, among voters aged 26 and younger, the only group Kamala Harris carried in 2024 was minority women.

A majority of men of all races and white women in that age group backed President Donald Trump, with support exceeding 50%.

The report also indicates that naturalized U.S. citizens—foreign-born voters who make up roughly 10% of the electorate—likely supported Trump in 2024, flipping from a Biden+27 group in 2020 to a Trump+1 voting bloc.

“Precinct-level election results points to Trump making considerable gains in Black, Hispanic, and Asian immigrant neighborhoods throughout the country,” the report notes.

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The study also found that voters perceived Harris as more ideologically extreme than Trump during the 2024 election.

Furthermore, a majority of voters said they believed Trump had the “ability to make [their] life better.”

Economic concerns remained dominant among voter priorities, according to the report.

Issues like inflation and cost of living were cited as far more important to the electorate than Democrat-favored topics such as climate change, student loan forgiveness, abortion, and LGBTQ rights.

Voters also indicated they trusted the Republican Party more than Democrats to manage the economy and curb inflation.

The report underscores another critical development: politically disengaged and less likely voters are now trending Republican.

This trend, the firm suggests, could have significantly impacted the election outcome had the overall turnout been higher.

“There’s a turnout story this cycle – but a different one than we’re used to talking about,” the report states.

“With the combination of less-engaged and less-likely voters leaning more GOP, a larger electorate meant a more Republican electorate.”

Blue Rose Research estimates that if every registered voter had cast a ballot in 2024, Trump would have expanded his national popular vote margin to nearly five percentage points, rather than the 1.5% victory he secured.

The analysis also includes projections based on the December 2024 census update, which suggest Democrats could lose up to 12 House seats and corresponding electoral college votes by 2030.

The shift is expected to reflect ongoing demographic and geographic changes that continue to favor Republican gains.

Adding to the Democrats’ electoral challenges is the party’s lack of a clear national figurehead and historically low favorability ratings.

Following several high-profile retirements, Democrats face a difficult Senate map in 2026, with limited legislative power to oppose the Trump administration’s agenda.

As these long-term trends emerge, the report signals the potential for further Republican gains if Democrats fail to address shifting voter priorities and their diminishing support among key constituencies.

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