With early voting wrapping up, turnout statistics from key battleground states are signaling potential challenges for Kamala Harris’s campaign, particularly in North Carolina and Nevada.

Early voting data shows concerning trends for Harris, who relies on strong support from specific demographics, including Black and urban voters, to make gains in red-leaning areas.

In North Carolina, a state that leans red but remains crucial in the 2024 election, early voting turnout among Black voters is currently trailing the levels seen during the 2020 presidential race.

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Black voters, who are central to Harris’s strategy in the state, make up about 18 percent of early ballots cast so far, falling short of the estimated 20 percent participation some Democratic strategists believe is necessary for Harris to be competitive.

Early voting in North Carolina also reveals a shift in demographic turnout, with older and white voters representing a larger portion of ballots compared to previous election cycles.

While women and suburban voters in North Carolina are showing up in relatively high numbers, Black voter turnout remains below the level Harris’s campaign anticipated as crucial to flipping the state.

In Nevada, another key battleground, rural Republican voters have turned out in high numbers, creating a potential advantage for the GOP in a state that leaned left in previous elections.

According to the latest figures, Republicans in Nevada hold a 40,500-ballot lead, a margin of 5.2 percent over Democrats.

This turnout is concentrated in rural counties, while Democrats have only managed a 10-point lead in Clark County, home to Las Vegas.

With more than 856,000 early and mail-in ballots cast, around 42 percent of Nevada’s registered voters have already voted, highlighting the high stakes for both parties.

Nationwide, nearly 60 million Americans have cast their ballots through early voting or mail-in options, representing roughly one-third of all registered voters.

Despite the high turnout, Democrats only hold a slight edge over Republicans in early voting participation, with a narrow 41 percent to 40 percent lead, according to NBC News tracking data.

Historically, Democrats have been more likely to vote early, while Republicans have traditionally favored in-person voting on Election Day.

In the 2016 election, Democrats led early voting by a 7.5-point margin, and during the 2020 election, amid a pandemic, that margin expanded to 14.3 points.

This year, however, early voting by registered Democrats is just 3.8 points higher than Republicans, indicating a more competitive race in early participation.

Pennsylvania, often considered the most critical swing state in presidential elections, has seen an increase in early voting turnout among Republicans, a shift from previous cycles.

This trend could impact Harris’s campaign as Election Day approaches, particularly as Republicans typically experience a surge in voter turnout on the day itself.

As early voting data continues to roll in, both parties are closely watching turnout patterns in these swing states, with Kamala’s campaign banking on strong turnout from urban and minority voters to make gains in states like North Carolina and Nevada.

With Election Day just days away, the outcome will hinge on whether Harris can energize key demographic groups to close the gap in red-leaning states and offset the GOP’s strong early showing in rural areas.

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