A new poll from the Trafalgar Group reveals that former President Donald Trump is leading Kamala Harris in the key battleground state of Pennsylvania.

The survey, conducted between September 26 and 29, polled 1,090 registered voters in the state.

The results show Trump leading Harris with 47.5 percent of the vote, compared to Harris’ 45.3 percent.

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The poll has a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percent, placing the two candidates in a virtual tie and making Pennsylvania a toss-up state for the 2024 election.

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Despite Trump’s narrow lead, Pennsylvania remains a difficult state to predict, especially given its history as a highly contested battleground in recent elections.

In the 2020 presidential race, Joe Biden narrowly won the state, flipping it from Trump’s 2016 victory.

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Pennsylvania, along with other swing states like Michigan and Georgia, will be crucial in determining the outcome of the upcoming election.

While the Trafalgar poll shows Trump leading in Pennsylvania, a separate poll from Spotlight PA/MassINC released last week presents a different picture.

That poll gives Harris a five-point lead over Trump in the state, with Harris receiving 49 percent of the vote to Trump’s 44 percent.

The Spotlight poll also has a margin of error of 4.0 percent, indicating that Pennsylvania remains highly competitive.

Polling averages compiled by The Hill and Decision Desk HQ show Harris with a slight advantage, leading by 1.2 percentage points, with 49.1 percent support compared to Trump’s 47.9 percent.

The Senate race in Pennsylvania is equally competitive. Democratic incumbent Senator Bob Casey is facing Republican challenger Dave McCormick.

Trafalgar’s poll shows Casey holding a slim lead over McCormick, with 47.4 percent of the vote compared to McCormick’s 45.6 percent.

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Like the presidential race, this contest falls within the margin of error, making it another close battle to watch in the 2024 election cycle.

Nationally, the race between Trump and Harris is tight in other key states as well.

The RealClearPolitics average now puts Trump ahead of Harris in Pennsylvania.

A recent poll conducted by The New York Times shows Trump leading Harris in several Sun Belt states, including Georgia, North Carolina, and Arizona, which will also be critical in determining the next president.

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In Michigan, another swing state, the race between Harris and Trump remains close.

U.S. Representative Elissa Slotkin, a Democrat from Michigan and the state’s Democratic Senate nominee, raised concerns last week about Harris’ performance in the state.

Speaking at a fundraiser alongside Senator Cory Booker, Slotkin expressed worry about Harris’ standing in Michigan, noting that her polling shows Harris “underwater” in the state.

Slotkin did not disclose specific polling numbers, but Michigan’s race between Harris and Trump is expected to be highly competitive.

Polls in Michigan show similar trends to those in Pennsylvania, with some polls giving Harris a narrow lead, while others show the candidates tied.

The latest FiveThirtyEight average of polls puts Harris up by two points in Michigan, while a New York Times/Siena College poll shows Harris leading by just one point, both within the margin of error.

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With just over a month until the 2024 presidential election, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and other key battleground states will play a decisive role in determining the outcome.

Both Trump and Harris will continue to focus their efforts on these states as they work to secure their party’s nomination and the presidency.

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