Successful presidential campaigns are a team effort. Not just the candidate and their campaign staff, but groups of voters who together bring enough support for victory. These coalitions are key. Assuming Biden is the Democrat nominee, here is how those coalitions will stack up in the fall for both nominees.
Men- Solidly for Trump. Men tend to be more conservative overall, men past 50 the most. White men lead this category but the president, because of economic gains, has made inroads with minority men. Either way, guys will back the president. This support will more than make up for the president’s possible slight deficit with women overall.
Women- Small advantage to the Democrats. Though white women went for Trump, minority and young women went for Hillary to such an extent that it cancelled out the white female vote in this category.Women tend to be the more liberal Democrats and more conservative Republicans, as their ideological intensity is fierce. Though Trump’s aggressive personal demeanor may turn off some suburban female voters, as tone matters much to the so called “kindergarten teacher vote.” If he loses here it won’t be by much.
Blacks- Solid advantage Democrats, but not as much as you’d think. Trump took 8% of the black vote in 2016. Not much. But his justice reform measures contrasted with Biden’s Senate votes for Clinton-era criminal legislation will hurt the Democrats here. The ads could run, “President Trump freed black men and women who had paid their debt.
Joe Biden voted to put them in jail and keep them there.” That combined with economic news that benefits minorities could double or triple Trump black support in 2020. If that increase happens, it will have a major positive effect for the GOP across the board, especially in close House races.
Latins- Advantage Democrat, but Trump closing in. The Latin vote breaks down into that those of Cuban and South American ancestry consistently vote for the GOP and the Mexicans and Puerto Ricans for the Democrats. That usually works out, given ethnic totals, to a 65/35 split for the Democrats. But the good economy and the fact that, like blacks, Latins are socially conservative may up the GOP/Trump numbers into the early 40s. That will help the president in swing states.
More coalition analysis to follow in future articles.