Most of the 2016 Republican presidential field has yet to divulge their third-quarter fund-raising numbers, preferring to keep them close to the vest for the ideal moment — or stalling because they’ve got bad news.
Dr. Ben Carson and Sen. Bernie Sanders released their big numbers the day after the quarter’s end, as did Hillary Clinton (not quite as big). But some may now be playing a game of chicken, hoping others will release their figures first.
On Oct. 15, the Federal Election Commission will make the reports public, whether the candidates like it or not. Once the numbers are out, candidates will scramble to message the reports and to massage indications of demise and doom read from the tea leaves of their fundraising figures.
Related: Candidates Lunge for Cash
One of the key money-spinning showdowns will occur between Jeb Bush and his newly ascendant rival, Sen. Marco Rubio.
As his former Florida mentor and fellow establishment darling struggles to make a compelling case for his candidacy, Rubio has begun to appear a more serious option for much of the establishment core of donors and operatives.
If Rubio pulls even with or surpasses Bush in the third quarter, it could mean the Florida senator has superseded Bush as the establishment favorite.
The main reason Bush remains in the top-tier class of 2016 is the fundraising might he’s demonstrated in the first half of 2015, raising $100 million for his Super PAC before officially entering the race. In the latest round, Bush is likely to remain a top fundraising powerhouse — but if Rubio pulls even with or surpasses Bush in the third quarter, it could mean the Florida senator has superseded Bush as the establishment favorite.
If Bush and Rubio’s numbers can augur the establishment’s ultimate champion, the numbers posted by Donald Trump in light of Carson’s success can offer insight into the fight for top outsider contender.
The real estate mogul, recently humbled by a report indicating his net worth was $4.5 billion instead of the $10 billion he originally trumpeted, has made self-funding a key component of his messaging. By refusing to seek donations, Trump argues he remains beholden to no one, a strategy centered around a well-funded establishment pick like Bush as the primary adversary.
But the strategy is likely to take on an unexpected dampening of its potency in light of Carson’s remarkable success in raising small donations from ordinary Americans, a testament to widespread grassroots support.
To retain the mantle of top outsider, Trump needs to outsize Carson on the cash front. The amount of his own money he has contributed to his campaign this quarter will say a lot about Trump’s strategy — and his commitment to winning the nomination. A modest contribution — $5 milion to $10 million, for instance — from his coffers could indicate the mogul is not yet willing to risk much of his own money.
New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and Ohio Gov. John Kasich will need to show moderately impressive numbers — i.e., double-digit millions.
The other serious contenders in the race, those who fall somewhere outside of the pure establishment or outsider categories, need to post impressive intakes to stay in the conversation. New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and Ohio Gov. John Kasich will need to show fairly impressive numbers — i.e., double-digit millions — for the opportunity to offer a serious alternative to voters.
The most compelling figure to follow in terms of fundraising may be Texas Sen. Ted Cruz. The anti-establishment firebrand is well-positioned as an outsider who happens to be in the United States Senate, battling publicly, and now viciously, with GOP leaders in Washington seen as unwilling to fight over conservative priorities.
Cruz has run on a populist platform and has arguably the most sound campaign strategy in the field, centered on the March 1, 2016, “SEC Primary,” which will include several southern states. To execute that strategy, Cruz needs a lot of campaign cash. He pulled in the most of any GOP candidate in the second quarter of 2015 for his official campaign arm, and if he remains in the top tier he is a force to be reckoned with.
The final quarter of 2015 will see an expedited winnowing of the historically large GOP field. By winter the stage should be set for a final showdown between those few chosen to represent the establishment, the outsiders, and the in-between candidates on the field of battle as voting begins at long last. The remaining cash takes of the candidates will set the tone of the conversation among them in the coming weeks.
Several candidates with good news — and even one with very bad news — have so far put their numbers out.
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Outsiders Sanders and Carson couldn’t wait to drop the news to the media in the third cash-grab leg of 2016 that they had raised $24 million and $20 million, respectively. It’s a huge take when you consider that then-Sen. Barack Obama raised $21 million in the same quarter of 2007, and Mitt Romney pulled in just $14.6 in the third quarter of 2011.
Their giddiness to get the figures out to the public was matched only by a couple of others.
Former Secretary of State Clinton was one of them. Seeking to assuage concerns about her deep vulnerabilities in light of Sanders’ success, she begrudgingly released the details of a $28 million take, a precipitous 41 percent drop-off from her last quarter.
And the flailing Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky posted a dismal $2.5 million intake of cash and is expected by much of the political world to be hovering over the void.
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