President Trump has the advantage, but don’t underestimate Biden

It's easy to do. But we do so at our own peril.

Image Credit: Wikimedia Commons / The White House

There are times when Joe Biden seems like a sad joke. The gaffes, the cluelessness, the hair plugs, the making up of facts on the fly are all reasons he can be discounted as an electoral threat to the president.

But don’t.

Remember two words: Red Tsunami.

Many assured the GOP that we would wipe out the Democrats in a tsunami of victories in the 2018 midterms. Instead, we lost the House. A similar attitude could lose us the White House.

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Trump still has a solid advantage, as when the nation is at peace and the economy is good presidents generally get reelected. But that is now and November is more than several months away. A weekend, much less eight months, is a lifetime in politics. No? Ask Amy Klobuchar, Tom Steyer, and Pete Buttigieg about that right about now.

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Biden will likely, not assuredly, be going into the convention with enough delegates for a first ballot victory. He will then have at his beck and call the almost full weight of a machine that has beaten the GOP in the popular vote every time —save 2004— since 1992. Yes, the popular vote is secondary to the Electoral College. But enough of the popular vote moves the Electoral College.

The Left could take a walk with some of its members. But also enough of them will negotiate for a price from Biden, a veep slot or some high cabinet positions, and he will pay that price.

The media? You can guess where that will go.

The debates? Trump will win. But the Democrats, if they’re smart, may not even show up. They could claim they will not debase themselves and the voters by taking part in a Trump insult spree. Sure, it’s lame. But why go into a fight you know you will likely lose?

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Every dirty trick, from blatant cheating to ballot harvesting, will be used for Biden if he’s the nominee. They also likely have some tricks they will roll out on Election Day. And if it’s close they could pull a Gore and refuse to concede.

So we need to work and think like we’re two points behind the Democrats from now until Election Day, regardless of how we feel or what the numbers say. Lest the big wave surprisingly drown us, again.

David Kamioner
meet the author

David Kamioner is a veteran of U.S. Army Intelligence and an honors graduate of the University of Maryland's European Division. He also served with the Pershing Nuclear Brigade and the First Infantry Division. Subsequent to that he worked for two decades as a political consultant, was part of the American Red Cross Hurricane Katrina disaster relief effort in Louisiana, ran a homeless shelter for veterans in Philadelphia, and taught as a college instructor. He serves as a Contributing Editor for LifeZette.

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