GOP Smashing Past Early Voting Performance

With Election Day now less than a week out, Republicans on Tuesday expressed satisfaction with their performance in early voting in key states, and GOP nominee Donald Trump announced an aggressive expansion of new TV ads in Democratic-leaning states.

With some national polls tightening in the wake of FBI Director James Comey’s announcement that the agency was reopening its investigation into Democrat Hillary Clinton’s handling of classified information as secretary of state, the outcome of early voting could prove crucial in determining whether Trump can thread the needle in what experts agree is a narrow path to victory.

“Republicans are almost at 100 percent of where we were in 2012 in terms of requests [for absentee ballots]. Our people are more fired up than Democrats.”

Here is a state-by-state look at contests Trump likely must sweep to nab the 270 electoral votes he needs to win the White House.

Florida
Republicans are so far running ahead of their 2012 pace, while Democrats are lagging in this vital swing state.

The share of the vote cast so far by registered Republicans is 4 percentage points higher than it was at this point in 2012, while votes by Democrats are down 7 points from a comparable point in 2012. The result is that Republican ballots have eclipsed Democratic ballots by 8,000. On the same day in 2012, Republican ballots trailed by 18,000.

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An analysis by University of Florida political science professor Daniel Smith suggests that Clinton appears to be underperforming with two key segments of President Obama’s winning coalition — black voters and millennials.

As of Monday morning, 421,000 black voters had cast early or absentee ballots. That is 55 percent of the black votes cast before Election Day in 2012. The AIF analysis also estimates 402,000 early votes for residents aged 18 to 34. That is 52 percent of the final pre-Election Day 2012 total from that age group.

“They’re not doing enough in the black community,” Rep. Alcee Hastings (D-Fla.) told Politico. “I have been screaming for months about this and nothing changed and now look what’s happening.”

Voters older than 65 — Trump’s base — make up 1.6 million early ballots. That is 97 percent of the pre-Election Day total from senior citizens in 2012.

Another positive sign for Trump is the demographic makeup of the 19 percent of early votes from independent voters. That group is 66 percent non-Hispanic white and 18 percent Hispanic. Clinton likely will need the final tally to be more heavily Latino in order to carry the state. If low black turnout holds through Election Day, it also would jeopardize Democrat Rep. Patrick Murphy’s increasingly long-shot hopes of upsetting Republican incumbent Sen. Marco Rubio.

Iowa
Early voting in person and by absentee ballots are off the pace of 2012 for both parties, but the drop-off is more severe for Democrats.

According to the most recent data from the secretary of state’s office, 155,425 ballots from registered Republicans have been cast, down 2.8 percent from the same point in 2012. Ballots from Democrats total 198,736, down 9.6 percent from 2012. Ballots from independents have declined by 9 percent, to 253,044. That means the electorate is more Republican than in 2012, giving the GOP an easier target to hit on Election Day.

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Tim Albrecht, an Iowa-based Republican pollster and political consultant, said he has never seen the GOP so engaged at all levels in the Hawkeye State.

“Republicans are almost at 100 percent of where we were in 2012 in terms of requests [for absentee ballots]. Our people are more fired up than Democrats,” he said. “Republicans always close strong in Iowa, and this year will be no exception.”

The key will be holding the Democratic advantage in early voting to a minimum, Albrecht said.

“Anything less than 70,000 is a net win for us,” he said.

Nevada
The Democrats had a bad day on the 10th day of early voting, out-polling Republicans in liberal vote-rich Clark County by just 900 ballots. And Republicans highlight a 10,000-vote improvement in early voting in 10 counties compared to the same point in 2012.

But journalist Jon Ralston, one of the most respected political experts in the state, wrote for ABC 13 that the Democratic Party’s “firewall” is still almost 48,000 votes in Clark — not as large as in 2012 but close.

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Statewide, the Democratic lead stands at a little more than 33,000.

If the present trends hold, Trump would need an enormous Election Day turnout to carry the state. Ralston noted that 500,000 votes already have been cast, meaning that as much as half of what will be the final tally came in after the FBI announcement.

To illustrate the math, if Clinton and Trump both win 90 percent of the early ballots from voters of their party and Trump takes 55 percent of the early votes cast by independents, he would still trail Clinton by 9,000 votes.

“It still looks a lot like 2012 … if Clinton holds 90 percent of her base, even if Trump makes progress with indies (and I think he is based on what I have seen), she could still lose them by 20 and win the state by 2 points,” he wrote.

North Carolina
Democrats are beating Republicans in early voting as they typically do, but the lead is narrower than it was in 2012.

As of Tuesday morning, 1,872,708 ballots had been cast, up 9 percent over the same period in 2012. Registered Democrats submitted 43.7 percent of those ballots, compared with 31.2 percent from Republicans. In 2012 at this point, Democrats held a 43-31 lead.

As with Florida, the biggest factor in the drop in Democratic voters appears to be lower turnout by black voters. Self-identified African-Americans make up 22.4 percent of early voters, compared with 71.2 percent who are white. The black vote has declined by 15 percent compared with the same period four years ago.

“In 2008, African-American voters flipped to being early voters,” Catawba College political scientist Michael Bitzer told The Raleigh News & Observer. “What you have so far is registered black voters down 15 percent from their same-day totals in 2012. That is going to have an impact on overall Democratic turnout.”

Ohio
The Buckeye State is another where Republicans appear to have cut into the traditional Democratic early voting advantage.

According to an analysis by Cleveland.com, voters in counties carried by President Obama in 2012 had requested 39,600 fewer absentee ballots as of Friday than during the same period four years ago. That is a 4-percent drop. In Cuyahoga County, an important Democratic stronghold, the decline is 17 percent.

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At the same time, requests for absentee ballots have increased by about 52,000 in counties that Republican Mitt Romney won in 2012. That is an 11-percent increase.

Voters in Republican counties also have returned their ballots at a higher rate than those in Democratic counties, according to the analysis.

Even if Trump manages to win all of those states, he still could come up short. Perhaps that is why his campaign announced Tuesday that it is buying ads in Michigan and New Mexico, a pair of states that historically have voted Democrat in national elections. It is part of a $25 million ad buy that also includes Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Maine, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Virginia, Nevada, and New Hampshire.

“The data clearly shows that Mr. Trump’s message is reaching voters and we are expanding the map,” Digital Director Brad Parscale said in a statement. “This addition to our already aggressive paid media outreach illustrates Mr. Trump’s commitment to reaching out to all voters in must-win states before Election Day.”