Washington is Such a Drag

Washington-based Republican candidates seeking the presidency are having trouble gaining traction, and the lack of strong, conservative leadership that can excite the imagination of voters may well be to blame.

Despite the view of many “experts” that conservative or Tea Party policies are a ruinous political path, the moderate leadership of the current Congress has brought approval ratings for the institution near an all-time low.

In a Gallup survey taken in March, 77 percent of Republicans and voters who lean Republican said they disapproved of the performance of a national legislature controlled by their own party.

In a Gallup survey taken in March, 77 percent of Republicans and voters who lean Republican said they disapproved of the performance of a national legislature controlled by their own party. That actually was a percentage point higher than the share of Democrats and Democratic leaners who gave a negative assessment.

According to the latest polling average compiled by RealClearPolitics, Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida receives just 6 percent of voters’ support, followed by Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky (3 percent) and former Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania (1.3 percent). Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina is polling so poorly RealClearPolitics did not even bother to include him in its roundup.

Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas — the most anti-establishment of the current political officeholders — scores the highest among Washington-based presidential hopefuls in national office, at just 7 percent.

“The opinion of Congress is so low, people are tired of the political class, and they are rebellious,” said Steffen Schmidt, a political science professor at Iowa State University.

Congress in the Tank
That might be an understatement. The most recent Gallup survey on the issue, taken last month, found that 14 percent of voters approved of the job Congress is doing. A whopping 82 percent disapproved. The disapproval rate has been in the mid-70s or higher in every Gallup poll taken since President Barack Obama won re-election in 2012.

The fish rots from the head, as one-time presidential candidate Michael Dukakis liked to say. In an April survey by Public Policy Polling, Republicans disapproved of House Speaker John Boehner by a margin of 50 percent to 35 percent, and of Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell by 43 percent to 31 percent.

Bills that had passed the House only to be killed by then-Majority Leader Harry Reid in past years mostly have not fared any better under McConnell.

Bills that had passed the House only to be killed by then-Majority Leader Harry Reid in past years mostly have not fared any better under McConnell. Conservatives so far have been impotent in their efforts to defund Planned Parenthood, repeal the Affordable Care Act, cut off funding for Obama’s immigration executive action, and a host of other issues.

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“Very little gets done,” said Gibbs Knotts, chairman of the political science department at the College of Charleston.

The one significant piece of legislation that has passed this year is a measure giving Obama a free hand to negotiate a trade deal with a bloc of Asian nations. The measure is anathema to many grassroots conservatives suspicious of multilateral trade pacts with third world countries.

Rise of the Non-politician
It is not just Washington candidates who are taking a drubbing in this year’s Republican race. All traditional politicians are struggling.

As candidates, the loud, brash Donald Trump and the soft-spoken Dr. Ben Carson could hardly be more different. They currently rank No. 1 and No. 2, respectively, in national public opinion polls. Hot on their heels is businesswoman Carly Fiorina, who has been critical of Trump. In the most recent poll of likely Iowa caucus goers, she ranked third; Trump and Carson were tied at 23 percent.

The common thread connecting all three candidates is this: None has ever held political office.

Could there be a more extraordinary demonstration of the anti-insider mood of rank-and-file Republicans?

Add Trump, Carson and Fiorina together, and the Monmouth University poll conducted Aug. 27-30 shows tha ta remarkable 56 percent of Iowa Republicans want a nominee completely outside the political class.

Add Trump, Carson and Fiorina together, and the Monmouth University poll conducted Aug. 27-30 shows a remarkable 56 percent of Iowa Republicans want a nominee completely outside the political class.

Though not as pronounced, national surveys are registering the same phenomenon. In Trump and Carson, voters are giving serious consideration to candidates who have never sought political office.

Donna Hoffman, the head of the political science department at the University of Northern Iowa, said Republicans, at least since Ronald Reagan’s presidency, have viewed the government with skepticism.

Iowa has a history of bucking the establishment.

“Then it makes sense that your voters might look to people in the private sphere,” she said.

Iowa has a history of bucking the establishment. The past two Republican winners of the caucuses, Rick Santorum in 2012 and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee in 2008, were hardly the choice of GOP insiders. And Rev. Pat Robertson, who never held office, pulled off an upset win there in 1988.

Firewall Crumbling?
None of those candidates had legs far beyond Iowa, though. South Carolina historically has been a firewall to break the momentum of insurgent candidacies and allow establishment choices to recover from early stumbles.

Newt Gingrich broke that pattern in 2012, beating frontrunner Mitt Romney there. Although Romney ultimately won the nomination, there are signs South Carolina could remain fertile ground for an outsider candidate. A Monmouth poll last month found that 61 percent of likely Republican primary voters preferred someone outside of government for the nomination.

“Right now, that’s enough for voters willing to stick it the establishment.”

Iowa State’s Schmidt said no political experience is definitely not a disqualifier for many Republican voters and may even be a plus. Many like the business experience of candidates such as Trump or Fiorina.

“Right now, that’s enough for voters willing to stick it the establishment. The establishment includes all of these politicians who don’t think that they are part of the establishment,” he said. “The only thing that we know is that they want an outsider, so they’ve got three candidates at the top of the polls. If there were a fourth outsider, maybe they’d vote for that candidate.”

For now, many experts still believe it is unlikely Trump, Carson or Fiorina will end up winning the nomination. If that conventional wisdom proves true and those candidates falter, Knotts said, it could create an opening for Sen. Ted Cruz. He has made a career of publicly confronting the congressional leaders of his own party and could be attractive to frustrated voters who think some government experience is desirable.

“I think it could end up being someone like that,” Knotts said.