Trump’s Iowa Wakeup Call

In the days after the first prime-time presidential debate of the 2016 GOP contest, Dr. Ben Carson rushed to Iowa for five campaign events accompanied by a new ally — carpet-bombing campaign ads.

Carson’s surge past Donald Trump in recent Iowa polls has been attributed by the punditry to Trump-fatigue, evangelicals’ skepticism of Trump’s Christian faith, Carson’s pure personal appeal, and a host of other dubious factors.

The pundits missed that Carson is simply spending more money in the state than any other campaign. Unlike when he first entered the top tier of candidates, Carson is no longer gaining traction purely off of his amiable nature, authentic conservatism, and outsider status — as in every war, the ground game beats the aerial attack.

Carson has spent $20 million so far, much of it in Iowa — more than any other GOP candidate, and four times as much as the $5.8 million Trump’s campaign has spent.

That strategic use of campaign weaponry brought Carson to a 28 to 20 percent lead over Trump in Iowa, according to an Oct. 22 Quinnipiac University Poll — a 7 percentage point swing since September. Two polls since has confirmed Carson’s rise, including a Monmouth University poll released Monday showing Carson with a 14 point advantage on Trump.

A Tuesday poll from CBS News and the New York Times showed Carson edging Trump for the first time in a national survey. The modest four point advantage in that survey could mark a shift in momentum beyond Iowa driven by Carson’s big spending on digital messaging outside early states.

Carson is proving outsider insurgents need to combine their nontraditional appeal with the traditional tactics of well-organized campaigns, including TV ads, ground organization, digital ads, and direct mail.

That should be a wake up call to Trump to get his own money he keeps promising into his campaign coffers and start fighting on the traditional-war front, rather than relying solely on media attention.

While Trump has traipsed around on the flying carpet of massive free media attention, the Carson campaign has invested hard cash to pull the rug out from under Trump in Iowa.

If he doesn’t, others will exploit the opening. Carson has proven that so long as they have enough cash to carpet bomb early states with ads, and to deploy hordes of boots on the ground, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush remain potent threats. With the backing of the Washington establishment, they will be ready to capitalize if Trump leaves his flank exposed.

Establishment insiders, desperate for an opening to trip up Trump, will no doubt cautiously egg on Carson in Iowa, ultimately hopeful a Hawkeye State win for the doctor will spur their oft-predicted and hoped-for vision of a Trump collapse.

While Trump has zoomed around on the flying carpet of massive free media attention, the Carson campaign has invested hard cash to pull the rug out from under him in Iowa. Carson has poured $2.6 million into campaign mailers, $1.4 million into paid phone-banks, and nearly half a million dollars into television ads, according to an analysis from the Wall Street Journal.

Carson’s campaign spent roughly $5 million on social media and digital ads. The amount Carson spent on those highly targetable messages nearly matches the entire fundraising intake of Trump’s campaign in the third quarter of 2015.

A Carson win in the first primary contest could allow a window for Bush or Rubio, both candidates with powerful traditional campaign infrastructures, to take New Hampshire and seize the initiative.

Carson’s strategic assault on the top spot in Iowa has been buffeted by hustle on the ground. During the past several months, Carson has held 53 campaign events in Iowa, double the number of Trump campaign stops in the state.

Trump still leads Carson in most national polls, but the Carson march on Iowa should be a stark warning to the current front-runner that well-funded traditional campaign operations can sink his maverick, outsider candidacy.

There, too, Carson has spared no expense. The doctor’s campaign spent more than $270,000 on travel expenses, much of it in the Hawkeye State.

Trump still leads Carson in most national polls, but the Carson march on Iowa should be a stark warning to the current front-runner that well-funded traditional campaign operations can sink his maverick, outsider candidacy.

So far, Trump has responded to Carson’s rise by dropping controversial comments bringing Carson’s Seventh-day Adventist faith to the forefront and saying Carson, like Bush, is “low-energy.” That type of carrot-and-stick act to get the media to trumpet an opponent’s potential negative, true or not, has worked for Trump so far. But media manipulation may not work forever.

To keep his promise of not seeking donations, Trump will need to drop significant stacks of his own cash into his campaign soon to assemble the infrastructure and craft the messaging to effectively protect his lead.