A poll released Friday suggests Republican Donald Trump is within 2 percentage points of Democrat Hillary Clinton in Florida. It is the second survey this week showing a virtual dead heat in the all important swing state.

A Florida Atlantic University poll on Wednesday had the same margin as Friday’s Mason-Dixon survey but with the order reversed — Trump up by 2 points.

“We have a history of close elections, particularly at the top of the ticket.”

Close

“We have a history of close elections, particularly at the top of the ticket,” said Brad Coker, managing director of Mason-Dixon.

FAU political science professor Kevin Wagner said in a news release that different factors identified as important by poll respondents are pulling in opposite directions.

“Clinton likely got a boost from the fact that Floridians chose experience as the top quality they are looking for in their presidential candidate,” he stated. “But, Floridians also chose dissatisfaction with government as their top issue, which likely favors Mr. Trump.”

Both polls show Trump outperforming his national average among Hispanic voters. The FAU survey indicated that he is winning 40 percent of that demographic. The Mason-Dixon poll pegs Latino support at 27 percent.

[lz_table title=”Tossup Florida” source=”FAU,Mason-Dixon”]Florida Atlantic Poll
|,Trump,Clinton
All voters,43%,41%
White voters,49%,33%
Black voters,20%,68%
Hispanics voters,40%,50%
|Mason-Dixon Poll
|,Trump,Clinton
All voters,42%,44%
White voters,54%,29%
Black voters,5%,91%
Hispanics voters,27%,63%
[/lz_table]

“It was a little higher than I thought it would be,” Coker said. “I was thinking it would be closer to 20 percent than 30 percent.”

A key factor in Trump’s Hispanic support in Florida likely rests with the unique nature of the state’s Latino vote. Cuban-Americans make up a large share of the demographic. And Cubans, particularly those from older generations, historically lean Republican.

But Coker said the picture of Latinos is changing rapidly. Other Hispanics now make up a larger share, driven by Puerto Ricans fleeing economic collapse on the island. Since Puerto Rico is a U.S. territory, its residents are American citizens and can move to the mainland without restriction.

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“It changes every day because we have Puerto Ricans flocking in every day,” he said.

It is not just Hispanics that are driving change, Coker said. The Sunshine State is in constant flux with older voters dying and newcomers arriving.

“Florida’s always changing, but one thing that hasn’t changed — in the last 10 years, anyway — is that in statewide elections, as long as both candidates are reasonably well-funded, it’s always close,” he said. “There’s always something stirring the pot down here.”

And, Coker added, it is still early. Public attention traditionally does not focus intently on presidential races until after Labor Day.

“We’re not even at the fun part yet,” he said. “We’re just in batting practice.”