Polls: Do They Tell Us Anything?

If you’ve been paying attention to the 2016 race for the White House, you may have realized that polling hasn’t quite matched up with actual results.

The predictive polls from various universities and news outlets have shown Donald Trump with a clear lead, but Sen. Ted Cruz seems to be stealing away the spotlight and squeaking out big unexpected wins in primaries and caucuses across the country as a result of a strong anti-Trump fervor among voters.

In Kansas, for example, Cruz surprisingly won the state’s presidential caucus with 48.2 percent of the vote to Trump’s 23.3 percent. But prior polling painted a much different picture, with Trump ahead of Cruz, 35-29.

Trump was also expected to win Oklahoma’s Super Tuesday primary. Monmouth University polling showed Trump ahead with 35 percent support to Cruz’s 23 percent. Two other polls showed similar predictions. But, when the votes had been cast and tallied, Cruz was the clear winner with 34.4 percent to Trump’s 28.3 percent.

In Maine, Cruz surprisingly won the state’s caucus with 45.9 percent of the vote compared to Trump’s 32.6 percent. While there was little polling conducted, pundits expected a win from Trump, especially since he had an endorsement from the state’s governor, Paul LePage.

Looking ahead to Tuesday night’s contests, we can expect to see some more surprising results that doesn’t reflect what polling predictions — specifically in Idaho. Polling from Idaho Politics Weekly conducted from mid- to late-February shows Trump with 30 percent, Cruz 19 percent, and Rubio 16 percent. Keep in mind that this poll wouldn’t take into account shifts in opinion after the Super Tuesday or Saturday contests, as well as the last Republican presidential debate — leaving room for a shift in votes. At this point, it’s all about the momentum.

[lz_table title=”Idaho Republican Presidential Primary” source=”Real Clear Politics: Idaho Politics Weekly “]Donald Trump
30%
|Sen. Ted Cruz
19%
|Sen. Marco Rubio
16%
|Gov. John Kasich
5%
[/lz_table]

Recent polls give Trump fairly significant leads in Mississippi and Michigan, the two largest states set to vote on Tuesday. But, recent polling from Monmouth and Fox 2 Detroit show Gov. John Kasich gaining steam in the Great Lakes State — an indicator that the anti-Trump sentiment is strong and starting to show in polls.

What’s more, all eyes are on the key 99 delegate state of Florida which is set to hold its winner-take-all primary on March 15. Rubio, who had been trailing GOP front-runner Trump by double digits in prior polling, is now closing the gap there. Current polling from Monmouth University shows Trump leading with 38 percent to Rubio’s 30 percent, and Cruz a distant third with 17 percent.

There’s another interesting nugget of information in the Monmouth University poll. Rubio leads Trump by 48 percent to 23 percent among the nearly 1 in 5 voters who have already cast their early ballots in the Sunshine State. However, Trump has a 42% to 26% lead among those who have yet to vote.

In multiple polls, Trump’s lead has been widely exaggerated. One of the reasons could be that late deciders are voting for the candidate, in their respective state, who has the best chance of taking down Trump.

[lz_table title=”Florida Republican Presidential Primary” source=”Real Clear Politics: Monmouth University Poll”]Donald Trump
38%
|Sen. Marco Rubio
30%
|Sen. Ted Cruz
17%
|Gov. John Kasich
10%
[/lz_table]

If polls are any indication, there could be a significant shake-up on Tuesday night and Trump could very well lose states where he is predicted to win, shifting momentum in favor of Ted Cruz. But, the biggest surprise of them all could come next Tuesday night as the race turns to Ohio and Florida, shifting from proportionally awarded delegates based on percentage-of-the-vote basis, to winner-take-all.

By then, all the polls may mean nothing at all.