Cruz Looks West in Delegate Hunt

While thousands of March Madness fans have seen their brackets crumble as underdog teams stun the favorites, there’s also been a shake-up occurring in presidential politics — Sen. Ted Cruz holds a massive 42-point lead over GOP front-runner Donald Trump in the state of Utah.

But Trump holds a large lead in Arizona, which has even more delegates in play. So Tuesday may be a wash. But there are some signs Cruz may be threatening Trump in Arizona, and if he wins both states, it could recast the race.

Utah, which holds its caucuses on Tuesday, could swing much-needed momentum to the Texas senator’s campaign as he continues his crusade against Trump. The recently released Y2 Analytics survey shows Cruz with 53 percent of the vote, followed by Gov. John Kasich at 29 percent and Trump trailing the pack with 11 percent. In Utah, if a candidate receives 50 percent of the vote, the candidates takes all of the state’s 40 delegates. If no candidate is able to reach a majority, then the delegates are awarded proportionally.

[lz_table title=”Arizona Republican Presidential Primary” source=”Merrill Poll”]Donald Trump
31%
|Sen. Ted Cruz
19%
|Gov. John Kasich
10%
|Delegates at Stake
58
[/lz_table]

But polling shows a very different picture in the primary state of Arizona, which is also set to vote on Tuesday.

The most recent poll conducted by Arizona pollster Bruce Merrill shows Trump with a double-digit lead over Cruz — Trump with 31 percent to Cruz’s 19 percent. However, the poll was conducted before Sen. Marco Rubio dropped out of the race and showed him and Gov. Kasich tied at 10 percent.

But internal polling from a Cruz Super PAC, Politico reported, showed Cruz and Trump in a neck-and-neck race, even in a four-candidate field. In a survey conducted March 7-8, Trump led 25.5 percent to 23.8 percent, with Rubio and Kasich far behind, barely in double digits. But nearly 30 percent of voters remained undecided.

[lz_table title=”GOP Delegate Count” source=”The Associated Press”]Donald Trump
678
|Sen. Ted Cruz
423
|Gov. John Kasich
143
|Delegates Needed to Clinch Nomination
1237
[/lz_table]

What’s more, before Tuesday’s primary, more than half of Arizona’s GOP voters will have already voted due to their extensive early voting program — which certainly makes it difficult for Cruz to gain ground as he made his first appearance in the state over the weekend.

Arizona is a winner-take-all state, with 58 delegates to be awarded to the winner. But most importantly, it has the potential to shake up the state of the GOP primary and provide a boost to the GOP’s “Stop Trump” effort. If Cruz were to win Utah’s 40 delegates and Arizona’s 58 delegates, he would have amassed 521 in total, inching closer to Trump’s 678.

But according to the polling, the two states will likely split: Cruz winning 40 delegates in Utah and Trump expanding his lead with 58 delegates following a win in Arizona.

And on and on it goes.