Can Trump Poach Bernie Voters?

As Sen. Bernie Sanders’ prospects for the Democratic nomination fade, talk among some of his supporters and a few independent analysts is raising the possibility that Republican front-runner Donald Trump could be the unlikely beneficiary in the fall.

Trump himself seems to be courting the idea. He has made a point in recent speeches to say that the Democratic Party is treating the socialist senator from Vermont unfairly. He has even suggested that Sanders should run as an independent in the general election.

At first blush, the idea that Trump could poach Sanders supporters may seem absurd. The senator will almost assuredly endorse Clinton once his candidacy comes to its inevitable end. And Trump’s bombast and positions on several issues will likely drive away many — or even most — progressives who are feeling the Bern.

But Harlan Hill, a Democratic political strategist in New York, noted that both Sanders and Trump have highlighted a corrupt campaign finance system, both favor reorienting trade policy, and both support “nation-building at home” instead of foreign adventures.

“There’s a lot of commonality between Trump and Sanders on a handful of key issues … They’re putting emphasis on the exact same issues,” he told LifeZette. “Donald Trump’s not a traditional politician.”

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Justin Holmes, a political science professor at the University of Northern Iowa, said there could be an opening for Trump to capture a segment of Sanders’ voters.

“The number is probably pretty small, would be my sense,” he said. “But you’ve got a couple of things overlapping there … They are both strongly anti-Establishment.”

A group of Sanders’ non-ideological supporters motivated by disgust with politics as usual and the two-party system might find Trump an attractive alternative, said Holmes, who added, “Hillary Clinton is kind of the consummate insider.”

Holmes said it depends which issues are most important to Sanders voters. Those yearning for free college and health care would likely prefer the half a loaf offered by Clinton. But Holmes said blue-collar Sanders voters concerned about their jobs may trade his populism for Trump’s.

“Donald Trump, in his own strange way, is sort of speaking to the same economic concerns as Sanders,” he said.

Actor and activist Susan Sarandon caused a stir in March when she suggested that she might vote for Trump if the alternative is Clinton, telling MSNBC that “some people feel that Donald Trump will bring the revolution immediately if he gets in.”

Some less-famous Bernie backers have expressed similar sentiments.

“I feel that the core of both what Bernie’s movement is and Trump’s movement is, is the same,” Sanders supporter Marina Coddaire told CNN at a Trump rally in Connecticut. “This anti-Establishment [sentiment], being upset with the way that our government has been run and how the mistakes that they’ve made have really damaged the middle class and have disenfranchised them.”

[lz_table title=”Dems Saying ‘No’ to Hillary in Fall”]Poll,Percentage
Rasmussen (April 28),25%
McClatchy/Marist (April 6),25%
USA Today (March 14),35%*
WSJ/NBC (March 9),33%
|*Millennials only
[/lz_table]

Beyond such anecdotal accounts, there is polling data to suggest at least an opportunity for Trump. A Rasmussen Reports survey released Thursday indicated that 22 percent of voters would  skip the general election or vote for a third-party candidate if the major-party nominees are Trump and Clinton. The polls suggested 11 percent of Democrats would vote for Trump, while 10 percent of Republicans would vote for Clinton — a reminder of Trump’s own vulnerabilities to crossover voting.

A Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll in March indicated that 33 percent of Sanders supporters would not support Clinton. A USA Today/Rock the Vote poll that same months indicated that 35 percent of millennials who support Sanders would abandon Clinton in the fall. A McClatchy-Marist poll released in April indicated 25 percent of the senator’s supporters would ditch Clinton.

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It is not uncommon for voters on the losing side of a hotly contested primary to express dissatisfaction with the winner, however. Clinton’s supporters in 2008 were arguably more negative toward Obama, but the vast majority eventually came around. Holmes said a similar outcome is likely this time, particularly when Sanders supporters consider the many issues about which they disagree with Trump.

“Style-wise and policy-wise, they are very, very far apart,” he said.

But Hill said disappointed Clinton voters in 2008 were much more likely to be party regulars who would find it harder to vote for a Republican. Sanders’ legions of young voters are much less committed to the Democratic Party, he said. He added that Trump will be a formidable candidate as long has he avoids getting drawn into a debate over social issues.

“Most of the Bernie Sanders supporters that I talk to … they aren’t socialists,” said Hill, who is exploring forming a Democrats for Trump PAC to help make his case to progressives. “Trump miraculously has positioned himself to the left of [Clinton on foreign policy] but also to the right of Obama. I think he’s found the sweet spot.”