As the long slog to the nomination continues, the remaining candidates need to keep a watchful eye on the possibility of a contested convention — specifically what’s at stake with the delegates.

If Trump had won both Florida and Ohio the conversation around a contested convention would have quieted; but his loss in Ohio keeps the possibility alive.

Close

Throughout the 2016 election cycle, the traditional ground game has taken a backseat in American electoral politics, yet now the ground game will be more important than ever as the race draws to a close. Whoever has the best ground game and organization to round up delegates will be the one to claim victory.

The Republican Party’s rules require the winning candidate for the presidential nomination to receive the support of a majority of delegates at the party convention, which this year will be held in Cleveland in July.

This means the individual campaigns need to make sure their supporters are elected as delegates — a courting process that involves an intense ground operation.

[lz_third_party includes=”https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n3bNXZa8URo”]

Delegates in Some States Could Disregard Their State’s Primary Results
In some states, delegates are selected in a separate process from the primaries. According to GOP lawyer Ben Ginsberg, about 73 percent of the 2,472 total delegates — those in 44 of the 56 states and territories — are chosen by state conventions or executive committees consisting of local activists, volunteers and elected officials. This means the selected delegates will be heavily influenced by members of the GOP Establishment in those states.

If the race were to boil down to a contested convention, the will of the primary voters in some states could be disregarded by the delegates. As the rules stand, a majority of the delegates are bound on the first ballot by the results of their state’s nominating contest. However, after the first ballot has been cast, a complete free-for-all could happen. At that point, many delegates become free agents (depends on the individual rules of the state) and can vote however they want.

The determination for delegate selection is complex and decided primarily by each state. Most states elect delegates on a proportional basis. Some campaigns may wield influence among the delegates before they head to the convention in July, which could then result in a heated floor vote.

[lz_third_party includes=”https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1h7TBNnEqOE”]

Who do you think would win the Presidency?

By completing the poll, you agree to receive emails from LifeZette, occasional offers from our partners and that you've read and agree to our privacy policy and legal statement.

What’s more, some 166 delegates will arrive at the convention in July completely unbound to a candidate; and then there are the delegates of the candidates who have dropped out of the race. As of now, Sen. Marco Rubio had 169 delegates that would be unbound, Dr. Ben Carson had 8, and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush had 4 — meaning there’s room for courting by the campaigns.

Any campaign, in fact, that is not putting forth a strong and organized ground game effort to get its supporters elected as delegates will undoubtedly end their chance at the White House in Cleveland.

Pesky Rule 40
Many people may not know of a vague rule amended by delegates at the 2012 Republican National Committee convention, which prevented surging outsider candidates from becoming the GOP nominee.

Rule 40, in the RNC’s handbook, says any candidate must have a majority of delegate votes in at least eight states as a prerequisite to the nomination. The rule was amended from just five states.

The amendment of the rule came from GOP heavyweights who wanted to protect and secure the Establishment-backed Mitt Romney and to block out surging libertarian Ron Paul — who had already secured a majority in four states.

[lz_third_party includes=”https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lagLZv0SbSA”]

Ben Ginsberg, who formerly served as a lawyer to the RNC and as national counsel on the presidential campaigns of George W. Bush and Mitt Romney, spoke to LifeZette about what could happen with Rule 40 at the convention. “Rule 40 in 2016 will be determined solely by the delegates elected to the 2016 convention,” said Ginsburg. “The number of states needed to put a candidate’s name into nomination is decided by each convention for that convention. The ‘8 states needed’ in 2012 was for 2012 only — 2016 is a whole new ballgame.”

Every convention has the right to set the number of states needed to secure a nomination as mentioned in Rule 40 — meaning, there is no way to predict what will happen until the delegates for the convention are selected.

“The bottom line is that whoever has the most delegates in Cleveland and has the most delegates on the Convention Rules Committee is going to control the number of states needed under Rule 40. True for Trump. True for Cruz,” added Ginsberg. “If no candidate has a majority, the 2016 convention will need to work it out for itself.”

Anti-Trump Sentiment
This sentiment doesn’t just exist among Establishment Republicans, but among conservatives as well who want to prevent Donald Trump from becoming the GOP nominee. Not a single Establishment-backed candidate has prevailed this cycle and the Establishment will be ready to pull out any trick in the book to take Trump down if he doesn’t accrue enough delegates by the time of the convention.

If there’s enough anti-Trump sentiment among the delegates on the Rules Committee, then there is a good chance the rules will change — and not to the benefit of the GOP front-runner.

“Too much is uncertain, though one thing is for sure: Don’t underestimate Trump’s ability to broker a convention to his favor,” said Tony Sayegh, a Republican strategist. “It’s a mistake to talk about a second ballot as some sort of foregone conclusion against Trump. The non-Trump forces are essentially split between movement conservatives in the grassroots and traditional conservatives in the Establishment. The sustainability of that alliance will be challenged if Trump gets close enough, albeit short of the required threshold, with the idea of depriving Trump of the nomination then creating all-out pandemonium — especially if there is no clear consensus non-Trump replacement on the second ballot.”

Of all the candidates, Sen. Ted Cruz has arguably the strongest ground game and campaign organization, which bodes well for him on the convention floor when it comes to courting delegates. But Trump’s persuasive prowess and his ability to entertain shouldn’t be underestimated when it comes to courting delegates.