National Security

Taiwan No Easy Nut To Crack

Beijing would pay.

Image Credit: Shutterstock

Could the Chicoms take Taiwan? After a ferocious battle taking possibly months, yes. And after the Free Chinese move or destroy their microchip factories.

But as the Biden administration shows weakness to the world it emboldens Beijing to consider the option after White House vacillation on the issue. The Taiwanese are ready for anything and they’ve had over 70 years to train for it.

Fox: “China could invade Taiwan. Its military dwarfs the island nation’s armed forces, but any invasion would likely be more akin to the brutal Allied WWII landings on Normandy than the swift victory of Operation Desert Storm in the first Gulf War in 1991.

Roughly 100 miles from China and around the size of Maryland, not only is the island of Taiwan surrounded by a protective watery moat, but it is also an island with geographic features that make it an extremely poor candidate for an invasion – no matter how powerful that invading force might be.

Observers note that that in 1944, the U.S. military scrapped Operation Causeway, a plan to invade Taiwan (then a Japanese colony called Formosa) because it was deemed too costly. U.S. military planners concluded that invading and holding Formosa would require a total American assault force of half a million men. The Pentagon tallied up the number of U.S. casualties expected from an invasion and subsequent mountain, jungle and urban fighting and that number was staggering being – as many as 150,000.”

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Kitsch Liao, a military consultant with Taipei-based Doublethink Labs said, “Typically, any military unit carries no more than three days’ worth of supplies with them,” Liao says, “which means they either have to be resupplied, or scrounge whatever they can from the field. This means they’ll have to bring over an enormous amount of equipment,” says Liao.

“A successful landing would be a Pyrrhic victory for China. Far from completing their missions, the amphibious landing ships would potentially be required to go back and forth the Taiwan Strait (becoming extremely vulnerable and lucrative targets) in order to provide onshore forces with supplies,” Liao said.

“Xi Jinping could be suffering from a god complex that blinds him to the terrible risks associated with an invasion of Taiwan. A rational strategic leader would choose another course of action, such as a long campaign of coercion to isolate and blockade Taiwan,” comments Taiwan hand Ian Easton.

Easton notes 14 beaches in Taiwan that could be used for invasion, but writes, “Unfortunately for Chinese generals …Taiwan’s 770-mile-long coastline is remarkably unsuited for amphibious operations.”

Another obstacle are the islands of Matsu – and especially – Kinmen, both located just off the coast of the mainland. These citadels would be difficult to overcome, but they must be captured before any attack on the Taiwan can commence. Yup, not an easy nut at all.

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