In the long history of geopolitics it has mostly all been done before. Same thing with the presently obvious Russian endgame in Ukraine. Though, there’s a twist. Last time this kind of scenario was afoot, a shot wasn’t fired.
All that happened then was that weak men sold out an independent nation to a raging hegemon. This time in Ukraine we can thank providence that the West stands firm to support a strong leader.
What is the endgame? We’ll quote national security ace K.T. McFarland. She nails it. “Their Plan A was to mass along the border as if to invade, and assume Ukraine would capitulate on NATO membership and Donbas,” McFarland said. “When Ukraine did not, Russia’s Plan B was to invade and be in control in a few days. When that didn’t happen Russia moved to Plan C – protracted war and siege. When that didn’t work, they’ve moved to Plan D – consolidate in east and a frozen conflict along the border: spin it as a success back home, come back for rest of Ukraine in a few years.”
Yup, one bite in 2014 in the Crimea. Another bite now in Donbas. And the last in several years when we let our guard down. With that, Ukraine is gone. Just like Czechoslovakia was.
If you know this history by your own study or by my previous edification, then bear with me for a moment. You know where I’m going: The Sudetenland.
Hitler and his henchmen wanted Czechoslovakia as their next European morsel in 1938. But Czechoslovakia had a decent army, good terrain for defense, the Skoda arms works, and an alliance with France and the Soviets. So, with backup she could stand up to the Hun.
However, Hitler knew that Britain and France, bled dry by World War I, wanted to avoid war at all costs. So everybody, except the Czechs met at Munich in September and decided to give up a large part of Czechoslovakia, the Sudetenland, to Hitler in exchange for his word not to take the rest of the country. Czechoslovakia wasn’t consulted, just left alone by Britain and France so the two timid powers could avoid war.
Of course, Hitler lied and marched into Prague, the capital of Czechoslovakia, in March of 1939. Less than six months later the world was at war. As McFarland noted, Putin first thought he could get shock and awe. No dice. So he’s going for the delayed Sudetenland option. It was 8 years between the invasion of Crimea and now. After taking Donbas he’ll again wait several years before renewing the offensive against Ukraine.
But as opposed to the way the British and French treated the Czechs, the West this time has been united in defense of Ukraine. Zelenskyy is no Benes of Czechoslovakia, accepting a fait accompli from treacherous “allies.” Because of that and because of the current drubbing the Russians are getting in Ukraine, Putin will have to wait a lot longer than Hitler did for Prague before he marches into Kyiv. That is, if he ever does.
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If that scenario is correct then we’ll see a repeat in a few years. However, the playing field may be much changed at that point. The USA may have new leadership that won’t be braindead and Putin may not be around. If, sanctions hold and the WEST stands firm for longer than a few months maybe the Ukraine will get the lost territory returned to them in exchange for something that may be far more valuable to the Russians then some small bits of stolen territory, renewed trade and a hope for some prosperity.
Wants to rebuild Communist era Russia