Unless the Republicans screw it up, always a possibility, the House will turn red in the fall. But Democrats will use gerrymandering to try and save themselves. Liz Peek explains.

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Peek: To quote Larry Kudlow: The cavalry is coming! Campaign gurus say Republicans are a lock to win control of the House in November and have a good shot of taking back the Senate as well. They cite:

1. Joe Biden’s abysmal approval ratings – the worst of any post-war president at this point in his presidency other than Donald Trump. Moreover, they say, a president’s standing almost never improves meaningfully between March 31 and November; what’s done is done.

2. The GOP, according to internal polling, enjoys an unprecedented 17-point enthusiasm advantage. Republicans are riled up and cannot wait to cast a ballot; they are lining up to protest rising inflation, surging crime, the chaotic border, and other burning issues where they judge Democrats, led by Biden, to be failing.

3. Gallup reports that the number of voters who self-identify as Republicans jumped from 40% in January 2021 to 47% at the end of the year, while those saying they are Democrats plunged from 49% to 42% – an historic swing of 14 points that augurs well for the Grand Old Party. Gallup said of the survey: “The Republicans last held a five-point advantage in party identification and leaning in early 1995, after winning control of the House of Representatives for the first time since the 1950s.”

4. Glenn Younkin’s election last fall in Virginia’s gubernatorial contest, Republican candidate John Luhan flipping a blue seat in Texas District 118, and the shocking win of Ann Davison to become Seattle’s city attorney – the first Republican to serve in that post for three decades – confirm a nationwide shift to the right.

5. According to the Real Clear Politics average of polls, Republicans now have a 4-point advantage in the “generic ballot”, which is unusual; generally, the GOP trails Democrats by 4-5 points.

6. Thirty-one Democrat legislators are quitting their seats, either to retire from public office or run for another post. That’s a good sign; they know what’s coming.

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This is excellent news. Once in the majority in one or both houses of Congress, Republicans can kill off Biden’s extreme Leftist agenda for good. But… There is always plenty to worry about. For starters, Democrats are up to their usual tricks.

While the Senate outlook remains dicey for a GOP takeover, Republicans are talking optimistically about picking up 40 or even 50 seats in the House and gaining a majority. That seems like a landslide until you remember that in 2010, midway through Barack Obama’s first term in office, Republicans won 63 seats, delivering what the president himself called a “shellacking.”

Why are expectations more modest this year, even as Joe Biden is not nearly as popular as Obama was heading into his first midterm? Partly because since Obama’s presidency, perhaps stung by that 2012 outcome, Democrats are using the most recent census to redraw voting maps with a vengeance…

The good news is, it won’t matter. Despite their advantage in redrawing voting districts, Democrats are not likely to overcome the multiple policy failures of the Biden administration. The cavalry, despite Democrats’ gerrymandering, is on its way. Not a moment too soon.