For the better part of two weeks now, I have been telling you the numbers were not materializing for the mass death scenario being cheered on by the dark souls in much of the nation’s press corps. The pandemic they told us would leave people dying in the streets —unable to even see a doctor— are not panning out. The dire predictions of 2.2 million dead Americans are disappearing faster than a cockroach in the light. The roach might have cleaner hands.
In fact, the models are not just failing, they are failing in spectacular fashion. Day after day models that are paraded around as “the new Gold Standard” in predicting the coronapocalypse fail to deliver or even come anywhere close to what is actually happening.
After the prediction of 2.2 million dead Americans from Imperial College London fell apart without explanation, new models from the University of Washington IHME were held up, saying we could see up to 240,000 dead in the U.S. That was dropped to 81,000 a couple of days later. Now, other modeling is suggesting we will only reach 40,000 dead. Let’s hope these numbers continue the downward trend.
The modeling is now impacting the messaging of health officials and the political narrative as well. We are now hearing Governor Andrew Cuomo of New York, who was once predicting his state would need 140,000 hospital beds and 40,000 ventilators, admit that the apex of the outbreak of COVID-19 may already be here with less than 18,000 beds dedicated to patients sick with the Wuhan Virus. The state is now considering how it can offer ventilators to other areas facing serious outbreaks.
The great news is it appears New York State neither maxed out its available hospital beds and vacant intensive care units nor exhausted the number of ventilators available—even before the federal government sent more units from the National Strategic stockpile. California is putting up 500 more today for anyone to use.
In Michigan, Governor Gretchen “I cannot wait to be Joe’s running mate” Whitmer, breathlessly told her state on March 23 that seven million Michigan residents were likely to get sick, with one million needing to be hospitalized.
The dire declaration came as she executed a stay-at-home order that has since evolved into shutting down most businesses around the state. Whitmer is about the only governor to close golf courses. Whitmer’s attorney general has made it her personal mission to threaten any business that remains open that she doesn’t count as essential while also ensuring as many people as possible are fined $1,000—even arrested for violating the “order.”
Here is an example of another bold COVID-19 prediction for Michigan that came from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME): As of March 31, the center projects Michigan to reach its peak use of hospital resources to treat coronavirus patients in nine days on April 10—predicting Michigan will need 14,561 beds and 2,249 ICU beds. Michigan is projected to reach a peak in coronavirus deaths in 10 days on April 11 at 164 deaths. The institute also projects at its peak, Michigan will have a 4,407-bed shortage and a 1,506-ICU bed shortage.
But today there are 737 ICU beds available in Michigan and more than 18,000 empty hospital beds statewide, according to a state government web-page.
The IHME says Michigan will have about 3,000 deaths as a result of COVID-19. That may be one thing this model gets right but we will have to wait and see. However, that is an awful long way from millions sick and a million in the hospital.
When Governor Whitmer (the VP-wannabe) was asked about the outrageous number of seven million sick Michigan residents, she said it came from pandemic modeling she received from the University of Michigan. However, I have been unable to locate such a model from UM. If you can show me where to find it, please do.
What I did find was a comment from U of M epidemiologist Emily Martin who warned against putting too much emphasis on the number of cases that were going to be confirmed. Also on March 23, Martin said it’s natural for confirmed cases to spike, “because we are filling in the gaps of data.” So as we fill in the data, “it looks like its skyrocketing and that results in a lot of panic, worry and hysteria,” adding, “it’s just that we’re seeing more of the picture than before.”
With all the political games being played I think Martin was spot-on; we are certainly seeing more of the big picture than we did before. We are seeing House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) and Senator Chuck Schumer (D-NY) play games with the emergency stimulus package, adding in pork barrel projects that have nothing to do with a pandemic. We are seeing the same Democrats push for mail-in ballots in November, even though the worst offenders of getting the numbers completely wrong do not suggest we will be dealing with any of this after about July 1st.
In New York, Governor Cuomo says it looks like the whole thing has reached its peak, and in Michigan, Governor Whitmer is spending time talking with Joe Biden about Fig Newtons and his other favorite snacks.
Democrats have been praying to turn this into President Trump’s Katrina virus from day one. Now they are staring at the very real possibility that they have turned President Trump into a hero by turning their models into yesterday’s trash. The president has been holding daily press briefings throughout the pandemic and his numbers have been rising steadily. In fact, Trump is enjoying the best approval numbers of his presidency.
It seems a model the Democrats wish they could change will have to wait for about 130 million Americans to weigh in on November 3rd…to find out what we really think about all of this. It appears Democrats may be building a model for a perfect storm—a storm propelling President Trump to four more years in the White House.
This piece was written by Steve Gruber on April 8, 2020. It originally appeared in SteveGruber.com and is used by permission.
Read more at SteveGruber.com:
Fascist Michigan Governor Now Wants to Tell Us What We Can Buy When We Go Shopping
A Theory on Why the Virus is Spreading so Fast
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