Super Tuesday will set the pace to the convention and beyond

It looks like Sanders could clinch the Democratic nod next Tuesday.

Okay, here’s the math.

For a Democrat to win the nomination on the first ballot in Milwaukee in July they will have to secure 1,990 delegates out of a total of 3,979 available.

On Tuesday, California with 494 delegates, Texas with 261, and North Carolina with 122 all go to the polls. That’s 877 just with those three. On Tuesday 1,357 are totally available, counting the other states like Virginia, Minnesota, and Colorado that also take part.

That’s 1,357 up for grabs next Tuesday out of 1,990 needed for the nod. Get it?

And Sanders goes into it with an already solid lead. He does well delegate-wise then and he may be close to impossible to stop. Close to, not impossible.

We’ve seen how the Democrats don’t like the results of voting that doesn’t go their way by their attempt to overthrow the president. Well, the Democrat establishment feels the same way about races inside their own party. So they’ve laid booby traps for Sanders all the way from here to Milwaukee.

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First, not all of the states are winner-take-all. So Sanders could win the state but not get a majority of the delegates. Some states allow voting by mail and other ways, like ballot harvesting, that can overturn a legitimate result. Then there’s the fail-safe at the convention: Super-delegates.

500 people, the super-delegates, are standing by on the second ballot at the convention to throw a spanner into Sanders’ hopes. He just has to be stopped from getting to 1,990 on the first ballot. Then Bernie will start to bleed delegates and his people will look for an alternative, like Klobuchar. Or so the thinking goes.

It is wrong.

After getting robbed at the last Democratic convention, the Sanderistas are in no mood to play patsy a second time. If it goes to a second ballot and Bernie is losing ground, they will scream bloody murder and stay with their man.

There is an even more murky dirty trick waiting for the Vermonter: Fake endorsements.

Up to and during the convention, before the first ballot, he’ll have some pretty good endorsements in his back pocket. Like Hillary’s of the past couple of days. But then before voting, to manufacture negative movement away from him, those endorsements —that were never real anyway— are pulled away and it looks like Big Momentum has left Bernie.

So get out the wings and beer. It’s gonna be a show.

David Kamioner
meet the author

David Kamioner is a veteran of U.S. Army Intelligence and an honors graduate of the University of Maryland's European Division. He also served with the Pershing Nuclear Brigade and the First Infantry Division. Subsequent to that he worked for two decades as a political consultant, was part of the American Red Cross Hurricane Katrina disaster relief effort in Louisiana, ran a homeless shelter for veterans in Philadelphia, and taught as a college instructor. He serves as a Contributing Editor for LifeZette.

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