Two polls of likely presidential voters in the black community, released in the past few days by respected organizations, show President Donald Trump’s support among that group of Americans at 34 percent.
If that holds true in the November 2020 general election, it could have shattering effects for Democrats in battleground states such as Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Florida.
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Not only is the jump in support startling as a standalone, but with the constant drumbeat of Democrat black political leaders referring to the president as a “racist,” it makes the increase a slap in the face to those leaders, their media cheerleaders, and the Democratic Party itself.
Black voters were reliably Republican until the 1960s.
— Marcia Sessler (@MarciaSessler) November 25, 2019
With the GOP being the party of Lincoln and Southern Dems being the party of Jim Crow and the longtime majority of the Klu Klux Klan, blacks voted as strongly Republican back then as they do Democrat today.
But Dem outreach, President Lyndon Johnson’s civil rights legislation and Great Society programs, and President Richard Nixon’s “southern strategy” flipped the votes.
Now, blacks vote Dem in vast majorities and the modern south votes GOP in close to the same numbers.
However, the south looks to stay solidly GOP, while these polls paint a different picture for the Dems.
If Trump doubled, much less quadrupled, to over 15 percent his vote with African-American voters in Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Florida, it could help keep those states firmly in the GOP camp.
Dems cannot begin to fashion a winning Electoral College strategy without several of those states switching for the Dem nominee. A relatively much stronger Trump vote among black voters could also put states like Virginia in play for the Republicans.
The Dems understand this — and cannot be pleased with the potential of these numbers.
So they’re likely to launch a massive and targeted outreach to the black community, especially to Trump-supporting black men, doubling down on their charge that the president is a “racist.”
The Dems are hoping that black voters ignore the lowest black unemployment rate in the nation’s history.
Black voters are also traditionally socially conservative and conservative on illegal immigration issues as well.
If the Trump campaign were to reach out to African-American voters on those social issues and immigration, then the potential nightmare for the Dems could be made much worse. A five percent uptick could put Trump within striking distance of a majority of black votes.
Most political historians believe — and polling was rudimentary at that time — that the last black voter presidential majority went to the GOP in the 1920s.
If Trump did gain that level of support, he would be the first Republican presidential candidate to get it in close to a century.
It is early and these numbers will change.
But even if the president just doubles the support he had among blacks since 2016 — a very possible if not likely scenario — it spells big trouble for the Democratic Party.
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