Kavanaugh a Good Bet, According to Folks Risking Real Money

Judge Brett Kavanaugh still looks like a good bet to be confirmed to the Supreme Court — not according to mainstream media surveys or talking head prognosticators, but to the people who literally place bets.

PredictIt, a political prediction market that matches buyers and sellers in an online system that mimics the stock market, foresees better than even odds for Kavanaugh, although the price is somewhat lower than Sunday’s close.

“It’s actually been trending up the last week,” Will Jennings, a spokesman for the company, told LifeZette.

Kavanaugh (pictured above) was “trading” at 64 cents a share as of press time. That means it would cost an investor 64 cents a share to make a prediction that the judge will be confirmed. Essentially, that means investors believe there is a 64 percent chance Kavanaugh will get the gig.

Conversely, betting that the nomination will fail costs 36 cents a share.

And, as with a real stock market, investors can buy or sell at any time. If an investor bought at 68 cents a share, and bad news sends Kavanaugh’s price down by a dime, an investor with cold feet could dump the stock and cut his losses.

Jennings pointed to research indicating that prediction markets are better at forecasting elections than more traditional methods.

“They’ve proven that prediction markets can be more accurate than some opinion polls,” he said. “The idea is they [the investors] have skin in the game. People tend to pay closer attention.”

So far, more than 938,000 shares of Kavanaugh stock have been traded on PredictIt. That makes it one of the most popular political issues on the market, Jennings said. He added that interest spiked after sexual assault allegations against Kavanaugh were made public and after he testified for a second time last week.

“The idea is they [investors] have skin in the game. People tend to pay closer attention.”

“Last time we had this amount of interest was about the time President [Donald] Trump was going to make his appointment,” he said. The market correctly predicted Kavanaugh would be the nominee.

PredictIt opened the current up-or-down question on Kavanaugh on September 18, after California professor Christine Blasey Ford had gone public with her accusation that the nominee sexually molested her at an underage drinking party when both were in high school.

Kavanaugh stock trended down before reaching rock bottom at 26 cents a share during trading on September 23 before closing that day at 36 cents. That was the day The New Yorker published an article detailing allegations from a second woman, Yale University classmate Deborah Ramirez, who accused Kavanaugh of exposing himself to her at a drunken dorm party during their freshman year.

Kavanaugh’s stock recovered over the next few days, however, closing at 74 cents on Thursday, the day Kavanaugh and Ford both testified before the Senate Judiciary Committee. The market swung wildly that day. The price opened at 49 cents and then sank to 36 cents after Ford testified.

“When there was testimony last week, it was kind of a real-time poll of how people felt about the testimony.”

The price rebounded as Kavanaugh delivered an impassioned defense of himself, hitting 83 cents before closing at 74 cents.

“When there was testimony last week, it was kind of a real-time poll of how people felt about the testimony,” Jennings said.

The bottom-line question is one of more than 20 Kavanaugh-related markets PredictIt is running, from how individual senators will vote to when the vote will take place.

Related: ’The View’ Fawns Over Flake for Stalling ‘Potential Monster’ Kavanaugh

Since Trump nominated Kavanaugh on July 9, PredictIt has run a market on the question of how many votes Kavanaugh will get in the Senate. Currently, the price for 49 or fewer votes is 35 cents. The opening price on July 9 was 13 cents. It spiked after the allegations, reaching a high of 69 cents when the New Yorker article came out.

The next most popular bets are 51 votes (trading at 19 cents), 52 votes (18 cents) and 53 votes (17 cents).

And for what it’s worth, the smart money is on “yes” votes from every undecided Republican senator, along with undecided Democrat Joe Manchin of West Virginia (60 cents on yes).