In an otherwise depressing report for Republicans, a Morning Consult poll offered a glimmer of hope Thursday — Republicans have a slight edge among independent voters who have not made up their minds about the 2018 midterms.
The survey, based on interviews conducted last month with 936 people, suggests that 40 percent of independents have not decided how they will vote in midterm elections in November. Asked which way they lean, a slim majority of those voters — 51 percent — backed the GOP.
Converting that soft support into votes likely is the key for Republicans’ avoiding a disastrous general election, in which the party faces strong headwinds.
Overall, Democrats hold an advantage of 34 percent to 26 percent among independents. That 8-point edge is less than the winning party’s margin of victory with independents in the last three “wave” elections.
Republicans won unaffiliated voters by 12 percentage points in 2014, helping the party pick up 13 seats. In 2010, the GOP did even better with an 18-point advantage — and flipped 63 Democratic-held seats.
In 2006, it was Democrats with the 18-point margin among independents. That party enjoyed a net gain of 31 seats that year.
The independent vote is not the only factor in the upcoming election. A surge in turnout among Democratic-leaning voters could impact a number of close races in the House of Representatives. And Republicans have many more open seats to defend.
Still, it is difficult to envision Republicans’ maintaining control of the House if Democrats win independents by double digits.
Related: Those Ol’ Blue Wave Blues May Be Coming for Dems, Again
The survey indicates that President Donald Trump is the top issue for 18 percent of independents, and they break against the president by a 2-1 margin.
Economic issues are the top concern, cited by 25 percent of independents. Overall, independents trust congressional Republicans over Democrats on the issue, 40 percent to 27 percent. The lead is even higher among independents who rate the economy as their top issue. Republicans also lead Democrats by double digits on jobs.
After Trump, health care ranks next, the top issue for 14 percent of independents. Democrats have a 15-point advantage on that issue.
Join the Discussion
COMMENTS POLICY: We have no tolerance for messages of violence, racism, vulgarity, obscenity or other such discourteous behavior. Thank you for contributing to a respectful and useful online dialogue.