Manchin’s Lackluster Primary Performance Boosts GOP Hopes

With the general election field now set, West Virginia Republicans are licking their chops for the chance to take on incumbent Sen. Joe Manchin, and the results of the Democratic primary show why.

According to an analysis by University of Minnesota political science research fellow Eric Ostermeier, Manchin’s 69.8 percent share on Tuesday was the third-worst performance by an incumbent senator in either party’s primary in West Virginia history.

The last time an incumbent senator running for re-election did worse was in 1940, when Democrat Rush Holt finished third and failed to win the nomination.

Ostermeier, who founded the Smart Politics blog, said Manchin’s showing is even weaker considering his only opponent, progressive activist Paula Jean Swearengin, was underfunded and little-known.

“I do think it’s quite telling that a candidate who had a 10th of his campaign money, if that, and no name recognition got more votes against an incumbent than any challenger in over 75 years,” Ostermeier said. “It means something.”

Melody Potter, the chairwoman of the West Virginia Republican Party, said GOP nominee Patrick Morrisey has a great shot in November.

“Even Democrats in West Virginia are tired of liberals,” she said.

Manchin has a long history in Mountain State politics, having won statewide office five times, including secretary of state and governor. At the same time, he has proven adept at navigating the rightward shift of his state. He won both his Senate races by double digits.

“Republicans always overestimate how weak Manchin is … He understands his electorate very well,” said John Kilwein, interim chairman of the political science department at West Virginia University.

Manchin downplayed partisan politics during an appearance on Fox News following election night.

“I’ve been down this road before,” Manchin told host Neil Cavuto. “In 2012, Barack Obama got beat by Mitt Romney in West Virginia by 35 points, I won re-election by 25 points. That’s a 60-point swing. It’s unheard of. So the bottom line is, they don’t look at me as a Democrat. They look at me as a West Virginian.”

Still, Manchin (pictured above) figures to face his toughest test yet. Morrisey is well-known, having served almost five and a half years in statewide office as attorney general. And he likely will get plenty of support from the national party and pro-Republican super PACs, given how high the state ranks on the GOP’s list of targets.

Following the primary, Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics changed its rating of the West Virginia race from “leans Democrat” to “toss-up.”

Potter said Manchin did himself no favors by voting against the tax reform law last year. She accused him of exaggerating his moderate, bipartisan bona fides when talking to the folks back home.

“Joe Manchin is going to be hard to beat,” he said. “But it’s not about him positioning himself. It’s about telling people [what] they want to hear.”

Conrad Lucas, a West Virginia Republican who unsuccessfully sought the party’s nomination for an open seat in the House of Representatives on Tuesday, compared Manchin to former Democratic senators Mary Landrieu in Louisiana and Mark Pryor in Arkansas. Both styled themselves as moderates willing to buck their party leadership.

“They were senators who were representing very conservative states,” he said.

Yet despite having enjoyed success in their respective states, both Pryor and Landrieu went down to defeat in 2014.

Lucas predicted a similar result in November in his state.

“I don’t see a path to victory for Manchin,” he said.

Lucas said West Virginia has become even more overwhelmingly Republican than when it was the last time Manchin faced re-election. While Romney defeated Barack Obama there by 27 percentage points in 2012, President Donald Trump carried the state by 42 points.

Lucas said Manchin will have a hard time defending his record, and not only on tax cuts but on “an accumulation” of votes as well.

But Kilwein, the West Virginia University political scientist, said Morrisey also has vulnerabilities as a New Jersey native who only recently moved to the Mountain State — opening himself to charges of “carpetbagging” — and his time as a pharmaceutical industry lobbyist.

Related: GOP Insiders Breathe Sigh of Relief After West Virginia Results

What’s more, Kilwein added, Manchin’s showing on Tuesday might even help him. Those 48,302 Democrats who voted against him most likely were casting protest ballots because they regard the senator as too accommodating to Trump, Kilwein said.

“What that shows to me is he has alienated people on the Left,” he said. “And even in West Virginia, there are some people on the Left.”

Ostermeier, of Smart Politics, said those defectors are “probably being discussed at Manchin HQ.” Even in a “perfect world,” he added, Manchin figures to face a tough fight given how his state is trending.

But Ostermeier said the few liberal primary voters who are lukewarm toward Manchin are likely to skip the race in November. And Manchin has proven to be a skilled campaigner.

“If anyone can survive the trend that’s happening in West Virginia … it’s Joe Manchin, he said. “And he’s had plenty of opportunity to jump ship and become an independent or a Republican.”

PoliZette senior writer Brendan Kirby can be reached at [email protected]. Follow him on Twitter.

(photo credit, homepage image: Joe Manchin, CC BY-ND 2.0, by Governor Earl Ray Tomblin)