Senate May Nuke Obama’s Iran Deal

The ink may be dry now on the Obama administration’s historic arms agreement with Iran, but fresh fighting on Capitol Hill is threatening to doom the deal.

By our somewhat subjective count (senators tend to leave wiggle room in most things they say, so a little interpretation is needed), the administration is in significant danger of seeing its deal killed by Congress. (Vote count below.) If so, it would be an almost unprecedented rebuke of a major presidential foreign-policy initiative.

The White House was scrambling Thursday to save the deal from an embarrassing thumbs-down in the House and Senate, sending Vice President Joe Biden to the Hill to talk through concerns among Democrats and Republican members of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. Biden chaired the committee from 2007 to 2009, when he became vice president.

If even 13 of those 25 neutral senators — just half of them — break against the deal, Obama’s veto would be overridden in the Senate.

But fresh skirmishes broke out even during Biden’s visit, and it wasn’t simply Democrats versus Republicans. President Barack Obama’s intent to take the Iran agreement to the United Nations on Tuesday — before many in Congress have even read it, much less vote on it — has irked both sides of the aisle. As a result, the vice president faced “difficult and demanding” questions even from senators usually friendly to the administration, according to one of those usual allies, Delaware Democrat Chris Coons.

Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Bob Corker, R-Tenn., went so far as to publicly scold Obama to reporters Thursday afternoon, calling it “highly problematic” and “an affront” both to Congress and to Americans. Corker noted that Congress earlier this year passed the Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Law specifically to increase its input into the process of reaching and reviewing any such agreement with Iran.

“This is exactly what we were trying to stop. … I’m sorry, I look at that as an affront to the American people. I look at that as an affront to Congress,” Corker said outside the Foreign Relations Committee reception room after meeting with Biden.

“What that means is, they’re going to be agreeing to an agreement that they don’t even know they can implement. So I question the judgment of our president and the other members in entering into an agreement. … It shows, at a minimum, a lack of good judgment.”

Corker said he communicated his complaint Thursday specifically to Biden and U.N. Ambassador Samantha Power.

Democrat Sen. Ben Cardin of Maryland said he agreed with Corker that Obama’s visit to the U.N. on Tuesday is inappropriate.

“I think the administration should wait until Congress has its review,” Cardin said. “I don’t know what is lost by delaying” the U.N. visit.

Cardin said senators raised that point with Biden, but the vice president responded, according to Cardin, that “it’s not unusual to find an administration that has a different view than Congress.”

Congress cannot simply block the Iran agreement, but it does have 60 days to review it and either approve or disapprove of it, or ignore it and allow it to take effect. Or, the House and Senate could attempt to block the administration from lifting sanctions on Iran as called for by the agreement. That would bring a presidential veto, as Obama himself vowed on Tuesday. And that raises the question of whether the Senate could muster a two-thirds margin of 67 votes to override the veto.

Key to that question is whether enough Democrats will stick with Obama to prevent an override, and therefore sustain any veto that happens. So far this week, support from Democratic senators has been hard to find, with only California’s Dianne Feinstein indicating her absolutely solid initial approval.

In the Senate, the administration is in serious danger of losing to a filibuster-proof majority against the arms deal. More troubling to the administration, it is in reasonable danger of being unable even to sustain an expected Obama veto.

 The vice president faced “difficult and demanding” questions even from senators usually friendly to the administration.

LifeZette counts 39 votes as no or almost certainly no, with 15 identifiably leaning no, which would create a 54-vote majority against. On the other hand, only nine senators are near-certain yes votes for the agreement, with another 12 leaning that way. Twenty-five seem truly undecided, or have remained mum.

 If even 13 of those 25 neutral senators — just half of them — break against the deal, Obama’s veto would be overridden in the Senate.

Other reports show the percentage breakdown in the House to be similar. In short, it could be quite a close call.

Support from Republicans is fairly nonexistent. GOP Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina has called the agreement “a death sentence for Israel.” Republican Conference Chairman Lamar Alexander of Tennessee described himself as “very skeptical,” and 2008 GOP presidential nominee John McCain of Arizona called the deal “a complete giveaway.”

“As I predicted many times, in their desperation for a deal they would give away anything,” McCain said.

Asked whether there are enough votes in the Senate to override an Obama veto, McCain said he didn’t know.

“They’ll put enormous pressure on (Democrats) to sustain it,” he said.

But some Democrats dismiss the idea that the deal is doomed, describing Biden’s visit Thursday as a cordial and helpful gesture instead of a sign of peril.

“I get the sense that Democrats are trying to take the time to read it, understand it and be briefed on it before coming to any conclusions,” Coons said.

Other Democrats, such as Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia, pointed out that many of their colleagues haven’t yet had time to read the 100-plus page agreement, but are scheduled to receive a briefing from Secretary of State John Kerry next week. It was Kerry who brokered the agreement in Vienna after a series of prolonged talks.

“That will do an awful lot to help give comfort about what options we have and how he proceeded with this, and the building blocks of how we can keep a nuclear weapon out of their hands,” Manchin said of Kerry and Iran. “I’m hoping all of that comes to fruition next week.”

PoliZette Whip Count: The Obama Iran Deal

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