Don’t let GOP Establishment naysayers fool you — Donald Trump is positioned to win a general election with the help of working class and independent voters attracted to his economic message.
While Sen. Lindsey Graham may liken nominating Trump to being “on the team that bought a ticket on the Titanic after we saw the movie,” polling suggests Trump has wider appeal than the Establishment cares to admit.
At the core of Trump’s support has been largely less-educated, low-income white voters, the average blue-collar Americans who have been aligning less and less with the Democratic Party.
It might be tempting to ask if Trump can pull white, less-educated voters who lean Democrat to the Republican Party like Ronald Reagan did in 1980, but research actually shows that since 1980 that demographic has already distanced itself from the Democratic Party, aligning itself more with Republicans.
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What’s more, since 1980 there has been a 9.5 percent decrease in the amount of white voters with no college education who identify as Democrats, according to a Washington Post report.
Since 1980, this demographic swung more to the Republican party with the exception of 1992, 1996, 2008, and 2012. Some Democratic strategists suggest that they fear a Trump nomination because of his ability to bring these voters back to the GOP — something Romney wasn’t able to do in 2012.
Indeed, Romney lost among voters making less than $50,000, which make up roughly half of American households according to U.S. census data, a demographic that Trump is currently winning. Additionally, Romney wasn’t able to churn out enthusiasm the way Trump has — with only 32 percent of Republicans voting in the general election.
The high turnout and record-shattering numbers Trump has brought to the Republican primary contests, however, mirror the enthusiasm Obama’s candidacy created among Democrats in 2008. It’s possible this same enthusiasm could carry over to a general election.
Another untapped resource in American electorate poised to give Trump a significant advantage in a general election is “new” voters — including voters who are considered “lost,” meaning they have not voted in years due feeling left out by the two political parties.
This demographic tends to be more politically apathetic, but this year they have found a champion in Trump and are turning out to vote.
Then there’s the independent voters. So far in the Republican primaries and caucuses independents have strongly pulled for Trump, who has garnered between 20 and 50 percent among them.
Looking ahead to the general election, a CNN/ORC poll conducted at the end of February revealed a close match-up between Clinton and Trump in a general election among independent voters, with 48 percent support for Clinton compared to 44 percent for Trump.
But given the poll’s margin of error of the poll was 5.5 percent, it’s not a stretch to infer that independent voters are effectively split between Clinton and Trump. What’s more, the CNN/ORC survey asked voters to choose which of the remaining candidates, regardless of party affiliation, they trust most to handle seven key issues.
Trump dominates the list, specifically on the economy, with 38 percent to Clinton’s 25 percent. When broken down further, Trump leads on the economy specifically among independents 39 percent to Clinton’s 18 percent. But he also leads Clinton as well on the issues of terrorism and immigration, while Clinton trumps him when it comes to health care, foreign policy, and race relations.
[lz_table title=”Who Do You Trust Most on Economy” source=”CNN/ORC Survey 2/24 – 2/27″]All voters
Donald Trump,38%
Hillary Clinton,25%
|Independent voters
Donald Trump, 39%
Hillary Clinton,18%
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This bodes well for Trump, as the economy remains the number one concern among voters across party lines, with close to half saying it is the deciding factor when voting for a president. Independent voters are a wild card in this election but for now they seem to be in Trump’s camp.
The secret of Trump’s success is not xenophobia, or racism, or bigotry, or a silent majority with a fetish for large walls, but everyday Americans who feel betrayed by the Establishment and find Trump’s America-first attitude when it comes to trade and jobs incredibly appealing.
It’s the economy, stupid.
Ashley Pratte contributed to this article.
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