The Eight Democrats Most Likely to Support Tax Reform

While Republicans in Congress are proceeding with tax reform using a mechanism that would permit a party-line vote, President Donald Trump has made overtures toward bipartisanship.

Getting some Democratic senators onboard would be an important insurance policy in case of Republican defections. Attracting eight Democrats seems like pie in the sky at this point, but doing so would open the possibility of 60 “aye” votes and a filibuster-proof majority. In addition to the improved optics, such a scenario would have practical benefits. Chief among them is that it would avoid having to negotiate with the number crunchers at the Congressional Budget Office.

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Tying tax cuts to the budget, as Republicans plan to do, would allow the GOP to pass the bill with only 51 votes but would require the Congressional Budget Office to certify that the plan would not add to the deficit 10 years out.

The last broad-based tax cuts, passed during the early years of George W. Bush’s presidency, got around that hurdle by making the tax cuts temporary, with an expiration date within the 10-year budget window.

There is precedent for bipartisanship on taxes. In 1986, the last time Congress passed a major overhaul of the tax code, 41 Republican senators and 33 Democratic senators voted in favor of the initiative. But that was a different era. The current environment is more like 2003, when Congress passed the Growth Tax Relief Reconciliation Act with the support of only two Democratic senators.

But of today’s Democratic senators, some are more reachable than others. Here are the eight most likely to break ranks, from least to most likely:

8.) Sen. Robert Casey (D-Pa.). It probably is a toss-up among Casey and a handful of other Senate Democrats for this spot on the list. None is likely to support tax cuts.

Casey’s assessment of the tax reform framework was decidedly negative.

“The document released by the administration and congressional Republicans contains massive tax cuts for the super-rich, big corporations, and Washington special interests, which won’t create jobs or grow incomes for middle-class families,” he told the Daily Local News in the Philadelphia suburbs.

But Casey represents a state that Trump won in last year’s presidential election, if only narrowly.

So if a tax-cut bill picked up steam and rode a wave of popularity, Casey at least would be forced to consider his re-election campaign next year.

7.) Sen. Bill Nelson (D-Fla.). Nelson sounds super-skeptical about the Republican plan — particularly projections that it could significantly increase the national debt.

But Nelson represents the ultimate swing state and could have a major re-election fight next year if Republican Gov. Rick Scott decides to run.

Plus, he at least sounded interested in working with Republicans.

“The partisan squabble over health care is over, we can move forward on a bipartisan way,” he told WSAV-TV in southeastern Georgia.

6.) Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.). Warner is alone on this list from a state Trump did not win and is not even up for re-election next year. But Warner is a tick more moderate than the typical Democratic senator, and the Old Dominion still is fairly competitive between the two parties even though the growth of the Washington suburbs has pulled the state to the Left.

Warner also might hear footsteps from his surprisingly close race in 2014, when Republican Ed Gillespie nearly sneaked up on him, losing by less than a percentage point.

“I agree we need tax reform. We’ve got a way too complicated system,” Warner told NBC reporter Andrea Mitchell. “Yet out of the 34 industrial nations, our total overall revenue generated, we fall 31st out of 34. So we don’t collect enough revenue, but we have a very complicated system.”

Warner, however, has indicated he would need to see significant changes to the current framework.

“Unfortunately, what the president’s laid out is a plan that would very much disproportionately benefit those at the top and not give the right, I believe, incentives for businesses and others, for example, to do additional training for low- and moderate-income people,” he said.

5.) Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.). Truthfully, McCaskill hasn’t sounded eager to vote for the Republican tax cut plan. Her spokeswoman told the St. Louis Post-Dispatch that she had not had a chance to talk to Trump one on one.

McCaskill told The Hill that she worried about the Republican framework’s proposal to reduce the top rate for pass-through businesses to 25 percent. Those kinds of businesses include sole proprietorships and limited liability corporations (LLCs), and have their income taxed through the individual code on their owners’ returns.

“I believe tax reform should include policies that will benefit working and middle-class families, create new jobs, and protect existing jobs.”

“I am really worried about the huge tax breaks it gives to pass-throughs, wealthy people that use LLCs,” she said.

But McCaskill also faces re-election, and Trump won her state by 18.5 percentage points. And she seems likely to draw top-tier challenge Josh Hawley, the state’s attorney general. That would be a significant upgrade over her 2010 opponent, the self-imploding Todd Akin.

4.) Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.). Tester’s voting record is more liberal than his moderate persona would suggest. But he always must be mindful of his conservative-leaning constituency — Trump won the state by 20 points — and he faces the voters next year.

He released a non-committal statement last week after Republicans announced their plan. He indicated that he likes some parts and dislikes others.

“I want our tax code to work for Montana families and small business owners, without saddling our children with debt for generations to come,” he said in the statement.

Tester also expressed concern to The Hill about estimates that the plan could add $1.5 trillion to the national debt. He called that figure “crazy.”

3.) Sen. Joe Donnelly (D-Ind.). Donnelly is one of three Democratic senators — and three Republican senators — who broke bread at the White House last month with Trump for a chat about tax reform last month.

He also happens to face a potentially difficult re-election campaign in a Republican-leaning state. Trump beat Democrat Hillary Clinton there by 19 points in 2016.

Donnelly pronounced himself “hopeful” to The Hill and told RealClearPolitics that it was an “honor” to welcome Trump to an event in the state last week to drum up support for tax reform.

That comment was before Republicans unveiled their tax framework, however.

“I believe tax reform should include policies that will benefit working and middle-class families, create new jobs, and protect existing jobs,” he said.

2.) Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D-N.D.). Heitkamp faces re-election next year in a state that Trump carried by 36 points. She also attended the dinner with Trump, later describing a “good discussion” that was “encouraging.”

She told The Hill: “As I’ve long said I want to work with those on both sides of the aisle on a comprehensive, permanent tax reform plan,” she said. “I hope these bipartisan discussions continue.”

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In addition, she appeared with Trump last month at a rally to promote tax reform. That does not guarantee a “yes” vote by any stretch, but it does put Heitkamp in the upper echelon of Democratic senators who might support it.

1.) Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.). Manchin is the Senate’s most conservative Democrat, faces re-election next year, and represents a state Trump won by almost 42 points.

Manchin was one of the three Democrats who attended that dinner at the White House and has spoken in conciliatory terms.

“It’s a bipartisan gesture, I think that the president is approaching it as he needs 60 votes,” he told reporters.