Polls: Bush Struggles vs. Hillary

Multiple polls in three key swing states this month show former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush trailing his top-tier rivals for the 2016 Republican presidential nomination in general election match-ups against Democrat Hillary Clinton.

A poll out Wednesday by the Quinnipiac Polling Institute found Bush lagging behind both Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker and Florida U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio when it comes to a face-off with Clinton in the states of Colorado, Iowa and Virginia. Real estate magnate Donald Trump’s unfavorable ratings among voters were too high for him to be included in a hypothetical matchup with Clinton, according to Quinnipiac.

While the Quinnipiac poll showed Walker, Rubio and Bush all besting Clinton in the 2016 general election, Bush had the lowest margin of victory in all three states — raising the possibility GOP voters could nominate a candidate with a lesser chance of besting Clinton.

Bush had the lowest margin of victory in all three states.

Similarly, a Virginia-only poll by the Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling organization released July 16 found Bush lagging behind Trump, Walker, Rubio, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, Kentucky U.S. Sen. Rand Paul, Texas U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz and retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson when compared to Clinton in a general election race.

Bush fared only slightly better in a different national poll by PPP, also released Wednesday, which showed him faring better than Trump and Huckabee against Clinton in the general election, but tied with, and unable to beat out, Walker and Rubio.

The poll results come despite Bush’s well known family name and the fact that his political action committees have raised $103 million in the first six months of this year. Bush’s campaign did not respond to multiple requests for comment.

Related: Trump: Jeb and Hillary are ‘Twins’

Larry Sabato, who heads the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, attributed the recent poll results to “the Bush penalty.”

“Bush’s name has helped him raise over $100 million and secure the blessing of much of the party establishment. Yet the idea of a third Bush, especially given the heavy baggage of George W. Bush’s presidency that his brother will have to bear, shaves a measure of support,” Sabato said.

Given such numbers, Sabato speculated that Bush’s likely argument to GOP voters is to promote his experience and broad network of donors and advisers.

“The counter-argument to that is that the Bush name and legacy make it much easier for Hillary Clinton to generate enthusiasm for her own candidacy,” Sabato said.

“Bush is not the angry man’s candidate. It’s hard to argue you’re an agent of change like voters want when you’re carrying the Bush legacy.”

Ross Baker, a distinguished professor of political science at Rutgers University, agrees with Sabato that the Bush legacy – seen by some as a benefit – actually seems like more of a millstone.

“He has the unsupportable burden of being the establishment candidate, and Republican voters are feeling rebellious,” Baker said. “Hence the attraction of Donald Trump, which taps into basic frustration and anger (among) Republican voters. Bush is not the angry man’s candidate. It’s hard to argue you’re an agent of change like voters want when you’re carrying the Bush legacy.”

The Quinnipiac poll surveyed 1,231 registered voters in Colorado, 1,236 in Iowa, and 1,209 in Virginia from July 9 to July 20, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percent in all three state polls.

The PPP study in Virginia surveyed 1,170 registered voters — 502 Republicans and 409 Democrats — from July 13-15, and has an overall margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percent.

The national Public Policy Polling study surveyed 1,087 voters — 524 Republicans and 496 Democrats — from July 20 to 21, and has an overall margin of error of plus or minus 3 percent.