Now, Only Trump Has Clear Path to Majority

With more than 42 percent of the delegates now awarded, the Republican pre-convention nomination race breaks down like this: Billionaire Donald Trump has the clearest path to victory and Sen. Ted Cruz has an outside chance to get enough delegates to lead going into the convention — but without a majority. Sen. Marco Rubio and Gov. John Kasich have no shot at getting close to the lead at all.

That is the picture that emerges from interviews with political experts and a LifeZette analysis of primary results and the rest of the calendar leading to the Republican National Convention in July.

“I would put a much higher probability on Trump than someone else,” said Michael McDonald, a political science professor at the University of Florida.

Here is a look at what each candidate needs to do:

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Trump: Clean up on winner-take-all states.
Trump already maintains a healthy lead over Cruz in the delegate count. But because all of the states so far have awarded delegates proportionally, Trump has had to split delegates with his competitors in most of the states he has won. Had all of the states been winner-take-all so far, Trump already would have 644 delegates, about half of the total needed to be nominated.

Starting March 15, a large number of states will be winner-take-all or winner-take-most contests. Trump could go a long way toward sealing the nomination by winning Florida and Ohio on March 15. Not only would he win 165 delegates, but he would break the backs of Gov. John Kasich and Rubio in their home states.

From there, Trump’s path to victory involves beating Cruz in most of the remaining states. He could continue to lose some primaries and caucuses in “closed” elections where only Republicans can vote — states where he has performed weakest — and still win the nomination by running up totals in the Mid-Atlantic, Pacific Coast and industrial Midwest where some analysts believe Cruz will struggle.

California and Trump’s home state of New York both have large numbers of delegates. New Jersey, where Gov. Chris Christie endorsed Trump, is winner take all.

The map below shows Trump, depending on how well he does in the proportional states, winning 1,456 delegates.

Cruz: Break out of his base.
Cruz, by wining a half-dozen states, has made a strong case that he is the only plausible alternative to Trump. His problem is that he had won only 300 delegates heading into Tuesday’s primaries, meaning that he would have to win almost 60 percent of the remaining delegates to win the nomination outright.

His best hope may rest with passing Trump and entering the convention with the most delegates. That would put him in the best position to negotiate a deal that results in the nomination.

Central to this scenario is Cruz continuing to perform well in caucuses, which favor better-organized candidates, and closed primaries. States like Arizona, Nebraska and Montana fall into the latter category.

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Cruz also probably needs to win some states considered reaches, like Pennsylvania and California. They are big, diverse states with higher percentages of moderate Republicans.

“Can he play outside the area of his support base?” McDonald said. “A lot of people are skeptical he can win these winner-take-all states. Trump looks like he has the edge in those.”

Cruz needs both to hold Trump down and get the other candidates out of the race. His best scenario might be for Rubio and Kasich to win their home states, neither of which are promising for Cruz, and then get out shortly afterward. If Trump’s ceiling is as low as his critics contend, perhaps Cruz could put together a string of victories going head to head.

But Michigan State University political science professor Corwin Smidt said Cruz would not necessary pick up most of the voters supporting Rubio and Kasich.

“I don’t buy this argument,” he said. “I’m a little unclear that would actually happen … I guess he’d rather play with fire.”

Even an outcome like the map below could leave Cruz short of a majority. Under one simulation run by LifeZette, he ends up with 1,157.

Rubio and Kasich: Pray.
Rubio and Kasich’s paths to victory are implausible at best. Rubio would need to take more than two-thirds of he remaining delegates, Kasich even more.

Their best shots are probably is to win their home states of Florida and Ohio and then some other states, preventing an outright victory by Trump or Cruz. Then maybe a fractious convention will determine one of them is the best man to unify the party.