Hillary’s Risky Reliance on Black Voters

Hillary Clinton’s “firewall” in South Carolina’s Feb. 27 primary is constructed of black voters, whom she’s banking on to head to the polls and save her from the insurgent Sen. Bernie Sanders. Sanders is polling even with her in Nevada and may win there, and she needs to trounce in South Carolina, where she’s well ahead.

But it is not clear today’s polls will reflect the reality she will face on Election Day.

Black voters turned out at a higher rate than white voters in the 2008 South Carolina Democratic primary, making up 55 percent of the electorate that year. But they were energized by the prospect that a half-black, half-white man could for the first time be nominated and win. It is doubtful Hillary Clinton can count on that same turnout this year, and her support in some polls may be overstated.

In a Public Policy Polling survey conducted among likely Democratic primary voters, 54 percent were black. The poll gave Clinton a 21-point lead, 55-34 percent. But whether that reflects reality is questionable. The survey assumes about the same number of blacks turning out to vote as did in 2008, unlikely without Obama on the ballot.

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Clinton learned the hard way in 2008 just how crucial the black vote is, when black voters heavily turned out for then-Sen. Obama — crushing her chances at winning the Palmetto state. Even if she wins by less than expected this year, it will be a bad blow as the campaign heads toward Super Tuesday.

Sanders hasn’t yet caught on among Democratic black voters in South Carolina. Only 23 percent support him, compared to Clinton’s 63 percent, according to PPP. But, according to recent Reuters/Ipsos polling, the gap is smaller among young blacks 18 to 29 years old, with 46 percent support Clinton versus 33 percent for Sanders. Young black Americans may be starting to ‘feel the Bern’ like everyone else.

And Sanders is gaining some traction among all black voters in South Carolina. Last November, polling showed Sanders with a dismal 11 percent support among blacks, compared to Clinton’s 86 percent — but, he has risen about a dozen points between then and now. With two strong finishes in Iowa and New Hampshire, the spotlight has begun to shine on the self-proclaimed socialist from Vermont, and black voters are taking notice.

What’s more, polling isn’t always reflective of momentum and the ground game surrounding a campaign. A Pew Research Center poll in Dec. 2007, before the South Carolina primary in Jan. 2008, showed Clinton with 43 percent support among black voters compared to Obama’s 44 percent. On primary day, Clinton’s support among black voters dropped drastically to 19 percent compared to Obama’s overwhelming 78 percent, proving that anything can happen.

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Obama was seen as a candidate of hope and change, the face of tomorrow, which helped him among black voters and young voters. Throughout the 2016 campaign we have seen some similarities between Obama’s campaign and Sanders’ ability to attract large, young crowds to his campaign events with his promise of fighting the Establishment and proposal of new ideas. Sanders has invested significant resources into his ground game in South Carolina and Nevada, hoping gain momentum among minority voters and to mobilize them.

Clinton, on the other hand has focused less on a ground game and put more of an emphasis on key endorsements from leaders in the black community, such as Attorney General Eric Holder and the Congressional Black Caucus.

But, Clinton is not taking her high polling among black voters in the Palmetto State for granted as she desperately makes her final pitch to voters. On Tuesday Clinton delivered a speech in New York at the Schomburg Center for Research in Black Culture on how to break down barriers that hold back African-American families, undoubtedly trying to court their vote.

But how many black voters in South Carolina were watching is another question entirely.