Drivers Optional?

Imagine a world where drivers can read a book, read their smartphones or eat lunch, all without glancing at the road.

It becomes a reality when fully self-driving, or autonomous vehicles, are rolled out in the next five-to-10 years. Until then, several automobile manufacturers are offering some elements of automated driving capability through Advanced Driver Assistance Systems, or ADAS.

In its current form, ADAS features include adaptive cruise control, GPS and traffic warnings, connectivity to smart phones, back-up cameras, collision alerts, lane corrections, blind-spot warning and other features. Auto manufacturers are offering ADAS as a standard feature or as an add-on package. A few companies offer similar technology via aftermarket products.

Just as with any new auto technology, ADAS is now being installed in lower-cost vehicles after being featured in higher-end models. Ford, for example, is offering a pre-collision assist and pedestrian detection system on its 2015 Ford Mondeo car in Europe. The system uses radar and camera technology to warn a driver if a car or pedestrian is in the way.

Ford, as with most automakers, has been working on lane-control technologies, parking assist, blind spot information systems and other features for years. Toyota is another company that is lowering the cost of ADAS on certain car models. For a few hundred dollars, the company offers packages for lane-departure warnings, automatic braking and other features in their compact cars.

More advanced versions are available in Toyota’s Lexus models. These features consist of camera and radar technology to warn about impending collisions and for auto-braking capability. Other car manufacturers have been installing ADAS systems in their higher-end cars for years, with many models available in Europe. Companies making big investment in ADAS and autonomous vehicles include BMW, Tesla, Mercedes, Infiniti and Volvo, to mention a few. Auto manufacturers are leveraging existing wireless networks, other vehicles and roadside infrastructure to add more capability to future ADAS product offerings.

Safety Leads the Push for Self-Driving Cars
One of the main proponents in the development of fully autonomous vehicles hasn’t been the automakers, but Internet giant Google, which has cited safety as one of the biggest reasons its driven millions of miles testing the technology on SUVs and a dedicated car with no steering wheel.

Chris Urmson, Google’s self-driving cars director, said at a recent technology conference that self-driving vehicles will cut down on the 33,000 U.S. traffic deaths each year (“the equivalent of a 737 falling out of the sky five days a week,” he said) and save time and productivity lost. Urmson also said his goal, and his team’s goal, at Google was to ensure his son doesn’t have to get a driver’s license, a trend that has become popular with urbanized youth.

While Google’s message is upbeat and timely as millenials grow up, liability issues continue to surround autonomous vehicle development.

“In the end, you are always going to have that guy with the ’57 Chevy in his garage. How do you make the autonomous vehicle work with it? It’s akin to the horse and car,” said Ken Leonard, U.S. Transportation Department ITS Joint Program Office director.

Urmson said insurance companies are trying to accurately assess risk for future self-driving cars, and while the business model may change, money will still flow, just through a different path. Others believe it’s going to take more time than Google’s assertion that autonomous vehicles will be on the road in five years.

“Lessons from the past temper our optimism. While air bags were patented in 1953, and were introduced on luxury models in the 1970s, it wasn’t until the 1990s before there were big penetrations,” said James Anderson, Rand Corp. senior behavioral scientist. “Key takeaways are automaker opposition about the liability [of new technology] and lack of consumer support.”

Anderson said that yes, the lives saved will be a big driver of autonomous vehicles, but congestion will increase, making way for super commuting.

“Public transit will also go through big changes. An economic disruption will occur — do you know how much New York City makes from parking alone?” he said. “Safety doesn’t sell in the early stages, as many benefits don’t go directly to the user.”

Uber Gets into Autonomous Game
Such companies as on-demand ride company Uber are making big investments in self-driving vehicles by buying technology companies and even establishing a test center at Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh.

“Within 10 years, Uber will be producing its own fleet of autonomous vehicles,” said analyst Mike Dobson, who writes about mobile technology.

Uber executive Corey Owens, who said that one of the best cases for autonomous vehicles was the lack of use by consumers of their cars.

“In some areas, owning a car is non-negotiable. But how little these cars are used — as many as 95 percent stand idle,” he said.

The case for self-driving cars is highlighted by recent reports that quote Uber CEO Travis Kalanick as saying if Tesla can build a fully autonomous vehicle by 2020, he would buy every one.