How Long Are Trump’s Coattails?

Along Florida’s Atlantic Coast, Republican congressional candidate Carl Domino has embraced Donald Trump’s call to temporarily ban Muslims and praises the energy that the GOP presidential front-runner brings to the party. New York Senate candidate Wendy Long proudly proclaims herself part of the “Trump Ticket.”

In Nevada, Senate candidate Eddie Hamilton’s name will appear on the primary ballot as Eddie “Trumblican” Hamilton, and he features a photo of the real estate mogul on his Twitter page.

Domino, Long, and Hamilton are among a handful of Republican congressional candidates who are openly identifying with Trump, trying to ride his coattails into office. But most avowedly pro-Trump congressional candidates are long shots and some face uphill battles against better-funded candidates to even be nominated.

For most Republicans, both in office and seeking office, Trump remains controversial. So far, candidates have mostly shied away from embracing Trump — or have openly rejected him. He has an unusually small number of endorsements for a front-runner at this stage of the campaign, although that may be changing now that he is the presumptive nominee. Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R-N.H.), said Wednesday that she will support Trump.

Still, the tepid response to Trump up to this point raises questions about how successful he could be if elected — both in governing the country and remaking the Republican Party in his image. David Hopkins, a political science professor at Boston College, said major changes within political parties typically come about because of factional differences.

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“But Trump doesn’t lead a faction in the party,” he said. “He’s sort of a lone operator … If he were to win, the question is, how well does he get along with the rest of the party?”

Trump has certainly been preaching a different brand of conservatism than most elected Republicans. His tough talk on immigration sets him apart from the wing of the party that favors compromise and accommodation on the issue. His stances on international commerce are even more anathema to a party that has been nearly in lockstep on free trade. He has also deviated from party orthodoxy on foreign policy (he criticizes intervention) — and entitlements (he questions the need to reduce benefits).

But translating that vision into law would require acquiescence from Congress, and Hopkins said Republican leaders — even if they support a Trump-led ticket — are likely to resist a large chunk of his agenda. It is possible, he said, that Trump could get what he wants by building relationships with Congress.

“But I’m not sure Trump is the type of person who is able to do that,” he said.

Domino, a former state representative, said most Trump holdouts will come around quickly now that he has effectively won the nomination.

“Of all the candidates remaining … he’s the only one who can win the general election,” he said, hours before Sen. Ted Cruz dropped out of the race.

Domino said he believes Trump’s issue differences with most Republicans are not as great as they are made out to be.

“There’s going to be ‘kumbaya’ on 80 percent of the issues,” he said.

Patrick Miller, a Kansas University political science professor, said the policy shifts that Trump articulates already have taken place among voters. He said that Trump’s candidacy has revealed differences between the party’s elites and its voters on issues like immigration and entitlement reform. Even Trump’s attack on Sen. John McCain over the summer revealed that the rank and file do not much care for the Arizona Republican.

“Donald Trump is the product of changes that have already been in the party,” Miller said. “The nature of who is a Republican and who is a Democrat is changing … In a way, it was almost like Donald Trump did a good poll of the Republican Party and ran his campaign on that.”

The challenge for a President Trump, Miller said, would be to grow a stable of like-minded legislators.

“It will be interesting to see if Trump’s style of politics becomes more common among Republicans,” he said. “It will be interesting to see what factions come out of this.”

So far, Miller said, there are few candidates running as Trump Republicans, and most of those are fairly obscure. Many Republicans in competitive primary races had sought to steer clear of the Trump-Cruz nomination battle for fear of offending potential supporters.

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“We’ve got a lot of supporters from both the Trump camp and the Cruz camp,” Indiana Senate candidate and Rep. Marlin Stutzman said on “The Laura Ingraham Show” this week, before Tuesday’s primary. “Half of our team is supporting Cruz. Half of them are supporting Trump. We are focused on this race.”

William Gheen, president of the Americans for Legal Immigration political action committee, said that dynamic has been evident throughout the country.

“We originally thought the Trump effect would have a positive effect on insurgent Republicans running against RINO [Republicans in Name Only] Republicans,” said Gheen, whose group has endorsed Trump and tried to recruit immigration hard-liners to challenge incumbent Republicans. “Instead, the opposite has happened. It’s had a toxic effect and sucked all the oxygen from the room … The conservative base is too divided between Trump and Cruz.”

Gheen said many of the first-time voters Trump has attracted will end up — without realizing it — voting for Republican congressional candidates opposed to his agenda.

“If Donald Trump sticks to his promises … the real anti-incumbent wave in Congress probably will happen in the next midterm election,” he said.