The Swing State Politics of Immigration

As Donald Trump is set to deliver a major address on immigration Wednesday, the message will be filtered through realities that differ from one battleground state to another — based on the frequency with which voters confront the issue personally.

The share of illegal immigrants is near or above the national average in North Carolina, Florida, Colorado, and Nevada, for instance. But it is well below average in Ohio and Pennsylvania.

“Both of these phenomena are happening. The question is, which is stronger? I have no idea.”

States with high numbers of illegal immigrants might be more receptive to Trump’s message of restoring immigration law and order, because they have experienced the negative effects of illegal immigration up close. On the other hand, those states also tend to have a higher share of foreign-born residents who have become citizens — a demographic not likely to embrace Trump’s position.

It is a complex milieu that has experts at a loss to handicap from an electoral perspective.

“Both of these phenomena are happening,” said Center for Immigration Studies Executive Director Mark Krikorian, referring to the fact that mass immigration both produces new voters and heightens the anxiety of others. “The question is, which is stronger? I have no idea.”

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What is more certain is that to win the November election, Trump likely needs to win most or all of these six states. North Carolina traditionally has been a Republican state in presidential contests, but has been trending Democratic in recent cycles. If Trump can hold it and win Pennsylvania, Florida, and Ohio — plus the other states that 2012 nominee Mitt Romney carried — he would eke out a narrow Electoral College victory over Democrat Hillary Clinton.

Chris Chmielenski, director of content and activism at NumbersUSA, said it stands to reason that states with the heaviest concentrations of immigrants would be most receptive to Trump’s message.

[lz_table title=”Swing State Immigration Stats” source=”Migration Policy Institute”]State,Foreign-born,Illegal
|
Florida,20%,3.1%
Nevada,19.4%,4.5%
Colorado,10%,3%
North Carolina,7.7%,3.4%
Pennsylvania,6.4%,1.1%
Ohio,4.2%,.7%
[/lz_table]

“I say yes, and the reason why is folks living in states with rapidly growing legal and illegal immigrant populations are the ones where people see the most impact on government and social services,” he said.

The stakes of Trump’s immigration speech in Arizona are high. It has been his signature issue, but recent suggestions that he was “softening” his hard-line stance on deportations — followed by assurances that he would oppose any form of amnesty — have left some voters confused.

Krikorian said Trump would be best served in laying out a comprehensive and realistic plan to enforce immigration law and reduce the incentives for coming to the country illegally.

“All that talk about deporting everyone with deportation forces in two years was never going to happen,” Krikorian said. “And that’s the kind of thing that could alarm the immigration population.”

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Ira Mehlman, a spokesman for the Federation for American Immigration Reform, said there is a case to be made that mass immigration hurts the economic prospects of legal residents who share ethnicity with illegal immigrants.

“The important thing is to be able to separate out immigration policy and immigrants,” he said.

How Trump’s remarks play out in various states may hinge on how many immigrants live in them. According to the Migration Policy Institute, Ohio has only about 83,000 illegal immigrants. Naturalized citizens make up just 2.1 percent of the total population. That figure is 2.7 percent in North Carolina and 3.3 percent in Pennsylvania.

“If you’re looking at Pennsylvania and Ohio, and even North Carolina for that matter, it shouldn’t have that big of an impact on the election,” said Chmielenski, whose organization favors tighter immigration restrictions. “It appears they are going to be must-win states for Trump.”

Immigration, both legal and illegal, is a much bigger story in Florida and Nevada. Foreign-born residents who have become citizens make up 8.8 percent of the Nevada population and 10.7 percent of the population in Florida.

But it’s complicated. While Trump’s vow to build a wall might spark a backlash from Nevada’s Mexican-heavy immigrant population, the dynamics are much different in Florida.

“Florida is a little bit different case because a lot of the immigrant population in Florida is from Cuba,” Chmielenski said, noting that Cuban-Americans traditionally lean Republican.

Recent polling suggests that Trump is performing better among Hispanics in Florida than elsewhere.

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Chmielenski said the overall impact of the issue could be blunted by the distribution of the illegal immigrant population in America. Immigrants tend to be concentrated in states that are either overwhelming Democratic or Republican. Data gathered by the Pew Research Center indicate that aside from Florida, the five states with the most illegal immigrants are California, Texas, New York, New Jersey, and Illinois.

“None of those five states are swing states,” he said.

Mehlman said the importance of immigration policy tends to be an exaggerated factor in Hispanic voting. He said recent Hispanic immigrants are poorer on average and more dependent on government services — and thus predisposed to support the party that promises robust government.

“It’s more about economics. People tend to vote their pocketbook,” he said. “For understandable reasons, they vote their economic interests.”

And to the extent that immigration policy is important to Latino voters, Mehlman said it is difficult for Republicans to outbid the Democrats.

“They’re always going to be able to offer them a better deal,” he said.