Donald Trump’s sustained rise in the polls has obliterated the traditional battleground state map and brought the GOP nominee within sight of multiple paths to electoral college victory.
In head-to-head matchups Trump now leads Clinton by one percent in New Hampshire and Nevada, according to a Wall Street Journal/NBC News/Marist poll released Sunday.
“It’s going to come down to the Pennsylvania suburbs … It’s going to come down to white women [in Pennsylvania suburbs].”
Nevada hasn’t voted for the Republican nominee for president since giving its six electoral votes to President George W. Bush in 2004. New Hampshire hasn’t gone red in a presidential contest since 2000.
The good news for Trump in Nevada and New Hampshire comes just days after a survey of voters in all 50 states conducted by the Washington Post and Survey Monkey found the GOP nominee pulling nearly even with Clinton in a host of other traditionally non-competitive states.
In Maine, a state that hasn’t voted GOP for president since 1988, Trump has narrowed the gap with Clinton to within three points according to the Washington Post poll.
The same survey found Trump down just two points in Wisconsin, a stalwart of Democratic White House victories since 1984, and down 1 percent in Michigan, reliably blue since 1988.
[lz_table title=”Four State Battleground Poll” source=”Wall Street Journal/NBC/Marist Sept. 11″]State,Clinton,Trump
Arizona,41%,42%
Georgia,43%,46%
New Hampshire,42%,41%
Nevada,45%,44%
[/lz_table]
While most of the attention remains focused on the must-win states of Florida and Ohio and electoral vote-rich Pennsylvania, the tightening of the contest in less-discussed and less-predictable battlegrounds is likely to play a major part in the 2016 outcome.
These recent polls indicate Trump is within striking distance of picking up 40 surprise electoral votes.
To put that in perspective, wins in New Hampshire, Nevada, Maine, Michigan and Wisconsin, tacked onto the states Romney won in 2012 and Ohio, would mean Trump could actually lose Florida and still win the presidency.
In these large, vote-rich and traditional battleground states, Trump has similarly gained major ground against Clinton.
A September 7 poll conducted by Quinnipiac University shows Trump tied in Florida and leading by one-point in Ohio.
The last presidential survey in these states put out by Quinnipiac on August 7 found Trump down 4 percent in Ohio and 1 percent in Florida.
The confluence of non-traditional states coming into reach, and rising fortunes in the blockbuster swing-stated, has Trump, for the first time, on track for several possible paths to the presidency. Assuming Trump can win all the states won by Romney, the GOP nominee could be looking at a total of 122 additional electoral votes in states within three points of swinging his way. Of those, Trump would need just 64.
Of course, some of the recent polls are not without risk for Trump, as the map becomes ever less traditional and more evenly matched across a wider playing field.
The Journal-NBC News-Marist poll also found Trump only leading by 1 percent in Arizona and 3 percent in the usually diehard Republican state of Georgia. Georgia has 16 electoral votes and has voted for Republican presidential candidates every time since 1992. Losing that state would highly complicate Trump’s path to victory.
And given wins in Georgia and Arizona, the most traditional way Republicans have sought an Electoral College victory in recent elections begins with three states: Florida, Ohio and Virginia.
[lz_table title=”2016 States Within 3 Points Won By Obama in 2012″ source=”Washington Post 50-State Poll Sept. 6″]State,Clinton,Trump
Colorado,37%,37%
Florida,42%,40%
Iowa,36%,40%
Maine,37%,34%
Michigan,39%,38%
Nevada,40%,37%
Ohio,37%,40%
Pennsylvania,41%,38%
Wisconsin,39%,37%
[/lz_table]
Normally, Republicans would have Virginia to win as their third state after Ohio and Florida. It was seen as a crucial state in 2012 for Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney.
Matt Mackowiak, a Republican consultant for Potomac Strategy Group of Texas, notes Virginia has largely fallen off the swing-state map in 2012. Mackowiak says Clinton is not fighting hard there because she is confident northern Virginia will sway the state in her favor. In a sign of her confidence in Virginia Clinton has been off the airwaves in the state since Aug. 1.
“I think Virginia is gone,” said Mackowiak.
The solidifying of Virginia as a presidential blue state gives increased importance to the handful of states Trump is trailblazing as potential new battleground targets for the GOP.
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The biggest prize of them all is Pennsylvania. Mackowiak says there are some other electoral paths for Trump but those with the Keystone State in the red column are the most plausible.
The state has developed some good trendiness for the GOP in recent years.
Mackowiak says Pennsylvania’s Republicans have netted more than 200,000 new voters since 2012. Even so, Trump needs to target appeals to the right voters — in particular, one demographic, he said.
“It’s going to come down to the Pennsylvania suburbs,” said Mackowiak. “It’s going to come down to white women [in Pennsylvania suburbs]. He’s got to find a way to start appealing to white women.”
Pennsylvania, like its non-traditional swing-state cousins Michigan and Maine, has not cast its votes for the Republican presidential nominee since 1988.
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