The Final Brawl in the Fall

The chill of winter can arrest the momentum of rising candidates and freeze the hopes of contenders looking for a comeback as the holidays draw voters away from politics.

The coming GOP showdown Tuesday in Wisconsin on the Fox Business Channel could be the most consequential debate yet in determining how the final field of top presidential contenders will settle before the holiday season sets in.

The undisputed winners of the previous televised Republican bout were Florida Sen. Marco Rubio and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz.

As Jeb Bush has fallen Rubio has risen. Since the Oct. 28 debate, Bush, the former governor of Florida, has launched a so-far ill-fated comeback campaign with the mockable moniker “Jeb Can Fix It.” In the next debate, Rubio will need to keep the Jeb train headed to dropout town, but judging from Bush’s last three performances, that could well happen without the Florida senator’s help.

As Rubio looks to solidify his place as the Establishment darling, Cruz will be angling to continue coalescing conservatives.

Cruz had a major breakout moment in the previous debate when he chastised the CNBC moderators for their overt bias in a tirade that dominated much of the post-debate coverage.

Populist conservatives and evangelicals not convinced of the appeal of the two neophyte outsiders — Donald Trump and Ben Carson — have begun moving into the Cruz column. And Cruz can continue to attract those types by outshining Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, as he has done in previous debates. The Texas senator will also need to demonstrate to conservatives he has the substance Trump lacks and the fire Trump possesses.

Cruz can also continue his rise by outdoing Carson as a fighter. 

Cruz can also continue his rise by out doing Carson as a fighter.

An Oct. 25 poll from CBS and the New York Times showed Carson has a highly mushy mass of backers, with fewer than 20 percent saying their mind is set on the retired doctor.

Cruz can make a play for those soft-target voters — without attacking Carson — by appealing to conservatives as the candidate with more fight in his heart and dings in his sword.

Carson for his part needs to show more fight to stiff arm Cruz. Carson has already successfully maneuvered himself from likable novelty to serious outsider contender by combining a jovial nature with a deep sense of honesty and straightforwardness. To continue to challenge Trump as a top contender, and keep Cruz from cutting into his bloc of voters, Carson will need to remain committed to his air of affable integrity while convincing conservatives his lack of animation does not bespeak a lack of resolve to fight.

Carson has largely avoided challenging Trump with the kind of direct attacks that worked poorly for Paul and Ohio Gov. John Kasich.

Instead, the sleepy-seeming doctor, like fellow challenger Cruz, has remained friendly in his exchanges with Trump, and should continue to keep that sort of disciplined affability that has served him well.

Trump is facing his strongest challenge to date from Carson. To stop Carson in his tracks, Trump may do what he does best — try to make his adversary mad.

If Trump can draw Carson out of his shell of amiability with personal jabs, the doctor may make more mistakes, or even lash out at Trump, as so many others have before, only to continue on to their 2016 graves.

Trump has already hinted at that kind of approach in the promo video for his upcoming “Saturday Night Live” appearance, where he called the accomplished neurosurgeon a “loser.”

Less than 100 days from the first votes being cast in the contest, the final field of top contenders is beginning to congeal. For those candidates who now find themselves outside that shrinking club, they should keep a wary eye for the sort of breakout delivery Cruz had in the CNBC debate.

It may be their last chance before they are ruined by holiday cheer.