Syrian Refugee Admissions Nosedive in May, Hit 15-Month Low

Despite a 20 percent increase in refugees last month, resettlements from Syria continued to plummet — falling to their lowest level since February 2016 — the State Department reported Tuesday.

The statistics come as the Supreme Court gets ready to review rulings by lower courts blocking President Donald Trump’s executive order temporarily freezing the refugee resettlement program. The 120-day pause was part of an executive order that also included a 90-day freeze on travelers from six terrorism-compromised countries.

That order has never taken effect, however, because of the judicial orders blocking it.

[lz_ndn video=32514628]

Overall, the United States resettled 3,989 refugees from around the world in May. That was the most since February, when the U.S. took in 4,580. Refugee flows have slowed from the countries Trump targeted in his executive order. Counting Iraq, which was on the original travel-ban list, the United States took in 929 refugees last month. That is down from 1,191 in April.

“Probably, like much of the rest of the Trump administration, there’s an ongoing struggle between the desires of the Trump administration and the ingrained biases of the civil service.”

Within that group, there is some variation. Refugee resettlements declined from Iran and Iraq, while increasing from Sudan and Somalia.

Kyle Shideler, director of threat information at the Washington-based Center for Security Policy, said the mixed bag likely reflects a struggle within the government.

“It’s been curious to watch this question,” he said. “Probably, like much of the rest of the Trump administration, there’s an ongoing struggle between the desires of the Trump administration and the ingrained biases of the civil service.”

[lz_table title=”Refugee Resettlements” source=”Refugee Processing Center”]Resettlements from original travel-ban nations
|Country,April,May
Syria,226,156
Iran,167,125
Iraq,463,221
Sudan,85,130
Somalia,250,294
Yemen,0,3
Libya,0,0
|Total,1191,929
|All countries,3316,3989
[/lz_table]

Jessica Vaughan, a former foreign service officer who now serves as director of policy studies at the Center for Immigration Studies, said she believes the declining numbers are the result of more stringent screening procedures that the administration has put in place rather than an arbitrary decision to reduce admissions. She pointed to Senate testimony Tuesday by Homeland Security Secretary John Kelly about additional procedures.

“Based on public statements that have been made … there were changes to the application review process for all categories, and I assume particularly for refugees,” Vaughan said.

Those changes include reviewing additional information and enhancing the interview process, Vaughan said. She said it also means changing the approach of government officials, placing the burden of proof on the applicant. When in doubt, she said, the administration wants government employees to reject applications rather than wave refugees through.

“This is appropriate considering everything that’s happening in the world and our own experience with refugees,” she said.

Even without formally freezing the program — or reducing the annual refugee cap, which Trump also wanted to do — there are ways to slow down refugee processing, Shideler said. But he said there are other possible explanations for the decrease.

For instance, Shideler said, it could be that Syrians at United Nations refugee camps in the Middle East are waiting to see the outcome of a stepped-up effort to rout the Islamic State in their homeland before deciding to move halfway around the world.

Shideler also pointed to a news story by San Francisco’s CBS affiliate, quoting a U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services spokeswoman as saying that agency earlier this year suspended the departure of officers who were scheduled to interview refugee candidates in foreign countries.

The uncertainty, Shideler said, makes it hard to predict refugee flows in the future.

“It’s up in the air,” he said.